1.BHP's Optimistic Annual Copper Production Expectations Drive LME Copper to Sharp Overnight Gains
2026.4.23 Thursday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,299.5/mt, touched a low of $13,263/mt at the beginning of the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,480/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,470.5/mt, up 2.4%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 275,000 lots, down 4,026 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,620 yuan/mt, touched a low of 102,490 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center rose to a high of 104,000 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 103,900 yuan/mt, up 1.23%, with trading volume at 73,000 lots and open interest at 220,000 lots, up 15,806 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.
[ Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) BHP Group announced in its earnings report on Wednesday that annual copper production is expected to reach the upper half of its guidance range. The company stated that Q3 copper production fell 7% YoY to 476,800 mt, below the expected 479,200 mt, due to weak performance at its Escondida and Pampa Norte copper mine operations in Chile. Among them, Escondida copper mine production was 303,200 mt, down 9% YoY; Pampa Norte copper mine production was 44,600 mt, down 34% YoY. For FY2026 to date (through month-end of March), copper production was 1.4609 million mt, down 3% from the previous fiscal year. The company stated that annual copper production is expected to reach the upper half of the guidance range of 1.9-2 million mt.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On April 22, the SHFE copper 2605 contract opened higher in the morning session, pulled back, stabilized, and then rebounded again. The opening price was 102,010 yuan/mt. After opening, prices rose quickly to a high of 102,380 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly with multiple rebounds, declining to 102,100 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding, with a closing price of 102,330 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged between 130 yuan/mt and 80 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract for cargoes with invoices dated this month ranged from a loss of 200 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further to around 250 yuan/mt, with arbitrage opportunities expanding further. The willingness to divert east China cargoes to south China is likely to strengthen, which is expected to redirect available cargoes from the Shanghai market, providing marginal support for local spot discounts. In addition, cargoes with invoices dated this month are currently relatively scarce in the Shanghai spot copper market's trading segment, and some suppliers chose to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month, with the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month maintained at 30-40 yuan/mt. Demand side, with copper prices currently moving sideways, downstream enterprises' acceptance of current copper prices may have improved somewhat, with ordering willingness rebounding slightly, but still primarily driven by just-in-time procurement. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage drivers, and invoice structure differentiation, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 310 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,455 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,355 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with inventory hitting a new low for the year, suppliers actively held prices firm, and the overall trading atmosphere was better than the previous day.
(3) Imported copper: On April 22, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $68/mt (price range $63-73/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $66/mt (price range $62-70/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $37/mt (price range $32-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 22 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 102,330 yuan/mt, up 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -5 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 22, copper scrap prices fell 200 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.69, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.25. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,818 yuan/mt, up 752 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,590 yuan/mt. According to an survey, although copper prices rose, copper scrap suppliers were constrained by a shortage of bills, and with relatively high copper scrap inventory levels leading to increased capital pressure, they had to slightly cut prices to facilitate shipments.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump extended the ceasefire agreement with Iran without setting a deadline for the extension; additionally, Trump claimed that a new round of US-Iran talks could resume as early as Friday, boosting market risk appetite and supporting copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported copper increased somewhat, while domestic supply remained tight; demand side, affected by copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.

2.Shanghai-Guangdong Price Spread Continues to Widen, Cross-Regional Transfers Expected to Boost East China Spot Premiums
April 21 update:
During the morning session, SHFE copper 2605 showed a trend of declining, rebounding, and then continuing to edge lower. The opening price was 102,460 yuan/mt. After opening, prices continued to fall, dropping to 102,080 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices rebounded to 102,290 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 102,000 yuan/mt and 102,200 yuan/mt before declining again, hitting a low of 101,880 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 101,950 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged between 150 yuan/mt and 90 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 160 yuan/mt to a loss of 80 yuan/mt.
Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.82, up 0.05 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.74, up 0.04 MoM.. At the start of the morning session, suppliers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Standard-quality copper was quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with Peruvian plates and JCC quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, and Tongguan and Zhongtiaoshan quoted at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun plates was quoted at a premium of 20-40 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers quickly lowered prices, with Zhongtiaoshan and Tiefeng quoted at a discount of 30-20 yuan/mt, JCC quoted at parity, and Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC quoted at ex-factory parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered prices, with Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC successively transacted at ex-factory parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt.
Outlook for tomorrow: Regional price spread side, the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further from the previous day, reaching 200 yuan/mt, with the theoretical arbitrage window opening. According, some suppliers have begun relocating cargo from Shanghai warehouses to Guangdong to capture regional price spread gains. If spot premiums in Guangdong continue to remain strong, cross-regional cargo transfers are expected to effectively divert available cargo from the Shanghai market, potentially providing marginal support for local spot discounts and even boosting spot premiums in Shanghai and other regions. Demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment recovered slightly after consecutive declines in copper prices, but overall procurement remained dominated by rigid demand. Overall, supported by the combined effects of cross-regional arbitrage diversion and the price spread between futures contracts structure, Shanghai spot copper against the 2605 contract is expected to remain at a discount tomorrow. Attention should be paid to the transmission effect of Guangdong premiums on the east China market going forward.

3.Zambian Copper Smelter Plans to Extend Production Shutdown, Further Squeezing Production and Chemical Supply
On April 20 (Monday), two industry sources said that Zambia's two largest copper smelters and sulphuric acid producers plan to carry out extended maintenance shutdowns later this year, which will further squeeze the country's copper production and the supply of sulphuric acid used to process copper and cobalt.
The Iran war has disrupted global supplies of this critical acid and other leaching chemicals, forcing mines in neighboring Congo, the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, to reduce usage or consider production cuts.
Zambia's mining ministry said that, as Africa's second-largest producer of critical metals needed for clean energy technologies, the country's copper smelters generate approximately 2 million mt of sulphuric acid annually, mainly as a by-product for use by local mines, with the surplus exported to the DRC.
First Quantum Minerals' country head in Zambia said that Zambia's own sulphuric acid inventory had been severely depleted, leaving virtually no export capacity. Meanwhile, miners in neighboring DRC were also struggling to cope with tightening chemical supplies.
*Mopani's long-overdue maintenance*
A chemicals trader said that although copper smelters typically shut down for about 30 days each year for routine maintenance, Mopani and Chambishi copper mines will face longer shutdowns this year.
A mining executive said Mopani copper mine had not undergone maintenance for some time and plans to shut down for three days in June, followed by an extended shutdown of approximately 40-45 days, August-mid-September.
The chemicals trader said Chambishi copper mine plans to shut down for approximately two months throughout August, but did not elaborate on the reasons for the planned extended shutdown.
Zambia tightened controls on sulphuric acid exports this month, requiring traders to obtain permits. The country said the move was aimed at protecting domestic industries.
First Quantum's Zambia country director Anthony Mukutuma said the measures were reasonable but exports were unlikely in the short term.
*Global copper supply expected to decline*
Global copper supply will tighten this year as years of underinvestment have constrained mine production growth. Zambia produced 890,346 mt of the red metal last year, falling short of the 1 million mt target.
Meanwhile, according to shipping data, Congo's copper exports declined in Q1 this year.
The mining executive said Mopani copper mine was operating well below its 225,000 mt finished copper capacity due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by years of underinvestment. The executive said the main owner, UAE-based International Resources Holding, was simultaneously developing and mining the mine, which forced intermittent production stoppages and further constrained output.

4.Geopolitical Disruptions Drove Repeated Bull-Bear Reversals, BC Copper Saw Wild Swings with Slight Gains
Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 91,360 yuan/mt, touching a low of 90,580 yuan/mt at the start of the session before fluctuating upward. During the day session, it opened higher with a gap, reaching a high of 92,080 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back and swung wildly, ultimately closing at 91,220 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Open interest stood at 6,534 lots, down 258 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 6,586 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. On the macro front, Iran's foreign minister announced that commercial vessels could transit the Strait of Hormuz normally, easing market risk-aversion sentiment somewhat. However, the optimistic expectations released by Trump regarding a second round of US-Iran negotiations were refuted by the Iranian side. Bullish and bearish sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, and the market remained cautious overall, with copper prices moving sideways. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper arrivals increased, while domestic supply remained tight due to smelter maintenance. Demand side, with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Regarding inventories, as of Monday, April 20, copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased 12.21% WoW from the previous Monday.
 
SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,620 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 91,220 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 103,078 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper was -458, remaining inverted but narrowing compared to the previous day.

5.Copper Inventories in China's Major Regions Continued Destocking for the Sixth Consecutive Week over the Weekend
April 20 News:
Data Brief: As of Monday, April 20,copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased 12.21% WoW, with total inventory up 66,700 mt YoY, marking six consecutive weeks of destocking.
Specifically, in Shanghai, imported arrivals increased marginally while domestic arrivals remained relatively low; combined with the widening Shanghai-Guangdong price spread driving warehouse withdrawals, overall inventory continued to decline. In Jiangsu, affected by smelter maintenance, domestic arrivals dropped significantly, while the pace of warehouse withdrawals remained stable, further driving destocking. In Guangdong, the prior destocking trend continued; although downstream consumption pulled back slightly, domestic arrivals remained consistently low due to factors such as maintenance and increased local consumption, which remained the core support for continued inventory decline.
Outlook: Supply side, imported sources are expected to gradually replenish the market, but overall domestic arrivals remain at relatively low levels, and the tight supply pattern has not fundamentally changed. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily make just-in-time procurement, with the overall consumption pace slowing down slightly compared to the prior period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to drop to 72.38% this week, down 5.43 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand sides, the market has formed a pattern of "tightening supply and slightly slowing consumption," and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.