1.Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Copper Prices; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Fell More Than 2.5%
Thursday, June 25, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, hitting a session high of $13,289/mt shortly after the open, before its center pulled back to $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, a drop of 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, driven by long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt overnight, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, a drop of 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bearish position building.
[Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Wednesday, June 24, Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer and a major nickel and copper producer, stated in a market review that Russia's copper concentrate production could grow by 10% this year, while copper cathode output in 2026 will stabilize at around 1 million mt. Norilsk Nickel indicated that, driven by new project launches and existing capacity upgrades for copper concentrates, Russia's copper production is expected to continue growing in 2026. In 2025, Russia's copper production is estimated at approximately 1.2 million mt of copper concentrates and 1 million mt of copper cathode. Norilsk Nickel plans to produce 336,000 to 356,000 mt of copper in 2026. Its US-sanctioned Bystrinsky plant is expected to produce 69,000 to 73,000 mt of copper concentrates.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 24, the SHFE copper 2607 contract traced an "M"-shaped pattern. It opened at 103,000 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly to a low of 102,900 yuan/mt, then edged up to a session high of 103,360 yuan/mt, traded between 103,180 yuan/mt and 103,360 yuan/mt, before another slight pullback and subsequent rise to a close at 103,180 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was between 50 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract was between a loss of 80 yuan/mt and a loss of 30 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, in terms of regional structure, available supply in Changzhou is significantly looser than before, as the previously tight pattern has effectively eased, weakening support for local spot premiums. From the perspective of supplier behavior, as the month-end payment period approaches, the market's sentiment to offload remains high, with suppliers showing strong willingness to cut their quotes continuously. The discount on some brands widened to around 100 yuan/mt during the day, and this trend is expected to continue today. On the demand side, after the decline in copper prices, some copper semis processing enterprises reported a pickup in orders. According, some end-user orders were concentrated in the 102,500-103,000 yuan/mt range, indicating that current price levels are moderately attractive and dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, as suppliers are significantly cutting prices to sell, downstream users are still mainly pushing for lower prices, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The import loss narrowed sharply to 80-30 yuan/mt, approaching the import break-even point, requiring attention to the inflow of overseas supply in the future. In summary, under the combined influence of offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount or widen slightly today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 24, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Overall, as copper prices continued to decline, suppliers began to hold prices firm while selling, spot premiums bottomed out, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On June 24, the average warrant price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price rose by $4/mt to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $3/mt to $35/mt (price range: $32-38/mt), with quotations referenced arrivals in early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 24, as of 11:30, futures closing price was 103,180 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -40 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices were down 500 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.33, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.41. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,743 yuan/mt, down 232 yuan/mt MoM. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 490 yuan/mt. According survey, copper prices weakened, many copper scrap suppliers opted to hold prices firm while selling, while secondary copper rod enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish market transactions.
Price: On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the US dollar’s dominant status and praised Warsh’s move to eliminate forward guidance. The strengthening US dollar index weighed on copper prices. On the US-Iran conflict, navigation pressure in the Strait of Hormuz eased significantly, and the US and Iran will continue technical consultations at the end of this month. Israel again took a hard line, stating it would not withdraw from Lebanon. Overall, a stronger US dollar combined with easing geopolitical risk premiums led to copper prices opening and moving lower yesterday. On the fundamentals front, supply side, the market sentiment to offload remained, but as copper prices continued to pull back, some suppliers began to hold prices firm while selling; demand side, downstream players continued to push for lower prices, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and edge lower today.

2.Sell-Off Sentiment Dominates, Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Continue to Widen
June 24:
The SHFE copper 2607 contract traced an "M"-shaped pattern during early trading. It opened at 103,000 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly to a low of 102,900 yuan/mt, then edged up to touch a session high of 103,360 yuan/mt. The price subsequently fluctuated between 103,180 yuan/mt and 103,360 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly again, then rose to close at 103,180 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contract ranged from 50 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood at a loss of 80 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt.
During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai registered 2.89, up 0.04 MoM, while purchase sentiment came in at 2.77, up 0.09 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, with brands such as JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, and Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zhongjin, Xikuang, and Zhongtiaoshan quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered their quotes, with Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zhongjin, Xikuang, and Zhongtiaoshan moved to discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng were quoted at EXW parity. High-quality copper brands such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun (plate) were quoted at premiums of 10 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper, including ESOX, was quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt. In the second trading window, suppliers further cut their quotes: Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were offered at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; Tiefeng, Zhongjin, and Xikuang at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper ESOX was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt; and non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 220 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, on the regional structure side, available supply in Changzhou is notably more ample than earlier, effectively easing the previously tight situation and weakening support for local spot premiums. On the supplier behavior side, as the month-end settlement period approaches, market sentiment for offloading cargo remains high, and suppliers show a strong willingness to cut quotes further, with discounts for some brands widening to near 100 yuan/mt during the day, a trend expected to persist tomorrow. Demand side, after copper prices moved lower, some copper semis processing enterprises reported an uptick in orders. learned that some end-users placed orders concentrated in the 102,500-103,000 yuan/mt range, indicating that current price levels remain moderately attractive to downstream buyers, with dip-buying willingness improving. However, given aggressive discount selling from suppliers, downstream players still mainly push for lower prices, lacking willingness to chase higher. The import loss narrowed significantly to 80-30 yuan/mt, approaching the breakeven point, and subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China warrant attention. Overall, driven by the combination of selling pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot copper premiums in Shanghai against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount or widen slightly tomorrow.

3.Payment recovery needs drive sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums under pressure and falling
June 23:
In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a weak downward trend. The opening price was 104,680 yuan/mt, followed by repeated declines, dipping to an intraday low of 103,880 yuan/mt before a slight rebound toward the close, with the closing price at 103,960 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month futures contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 260 yuan/mt and a loss of 200 yuan/mt.
During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.85, up 0.05 MoM, while purchase sentiment was 2.68, up 0.08 MoM; historical data can be accessed in the database. At the start of early trading, initial supplier quotes for standard-quality copper ranged from a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with brands such as JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, while Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Yuguang, and Zhongtiaoshan were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered their offers, with Dajiang PC, Zhongjin, Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Xikuang, and Yuguang quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintong PC, and Jinfeng quoted EXW at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. High-quality copper brands, such as Guixi and Jintong Daban, were quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper, including ESOX and BMKMOOK, was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered their offers: Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to parity; Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin, and Xikuang were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper traded at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 150 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers have month-end cash collection needs, leading to offloading behavior in the market, which dragged the overall spot premiums center lower. The actual transaction discount for standard-quality copper widened to 70-60 yuan/mt, with some brands quoted at a discount as deep as 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, according, the recent consecutive decline in copper prices has led to moderate order volumes for some processing enterprises, improving dip-buying willingness. However, judging by market performance, transactions only materialized after suppliers lowered their offers multiple times, indicating downstream players are mainly pushing for lower prices, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between supplier offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain in discount territory tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.

4.Smelter Arrivals Coupled with Import Inflows, Shanghai Spot Copper Inventory Buildup Pressure Emerges
June 22 news:
In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract trended weakly lower. The opening price was 104,990 yuan/mt, briefly retreating after a rapid rise to a session high of 105,200 yuan/mt before turning lower, dipping to an intraday low of 104,350 yuan/mt, then rebounding slightly toward the close to settle at 104,610 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 250 yuan/mt and a loss of 170 yuan/mt.
During the day, sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode registered 2.80, up 0.05 WoW, while procurement sentiment came in at 2.60, down 0.05 WoW. Historical data can be queried in the database. Early in the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with brands such as JCC and Lufang quoted at premiums of 20–30 yuan/mt, and Dajiang PC, Yuguang, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, Zijin, and Honglu quoted at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered their quotes—Tiefeng and Zhongtiaoshan were marked down to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng were quoted at EXW premiums of 30 yuan/mt; high-quality copper brands Guixi and Jintun large plate were quoted at premiums of 50–60 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper brands ESOX and BMKMOOK were quoted at discounts of 50–40 yuan/mt. In the second session, trading was sluggish, prompting suppliers to cut offers further—Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt; Tiefeng and others at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, Dajiang HS and Honglu at discounts of 20–10 yuan/mt; non-registered copper changed hands at discounts of 200–150 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, social inventory in the Shanghai region was recorded at 139,400 mt today, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu region inventory stood at 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a modest inventory buildup. According the buildup mainly stemmed from arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargo, increasing supply-side pressure. In terms of market performance, overall trading was sluggish throughout the day. Early offers from suppliers at parity to a 30-yuan/mt premium failed to attract sufficient transactions, leading to multiple successive downward revisions. By the second session, actual transactions for standard-quality copper had fallen to discounts around 50–30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers offloading cargo, further dragging the premium center lower. Overall demand was weak—downstream users only made just-in-time procurement and showed little willingness to chase higher prices. Taken together, under the combined weight of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

5.Overnight Copper Prices Close Higher as Bulls Reduce Positions; Spot Premiums Decline Under Inventory Buildup Pressure
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,720/mt, hitting a session high of $13,740.5/mt at the open, then fluctuating downward to a low of $13,633.2/mt, and finally settling at $13,587/mt, up 0.62%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, with open interest at 252,000 lots, down 969 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,990 yuan/mt, inched up to 105,170 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,470 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 104,990 yuan/mt, down 0.24%. Trading volume was 14,000 lots, with open interest at 104,000 lots, down 2,268 lots from the previous trading day, also due to bullish position reduction.
[Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On Monday, June 22, a preliminary production and sales report from Polish copper and silver producer KGHM Group showed total copper sales in May reached 62,100 mt, up 2% YoY, while available copper production was 58,500 mt, down 2% YoY, indicating the miner is consuming existing inventory to meet market demand. In silver, a similar production-sales inversion was observed, with available silver production in May at 129.4 mt, up 11% YoY, and total silver sales at 164 mt, up 46% YoY.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 22, the SHFE copper 2607 contract exhibited a weak downward trend. The opening price was 104,990 yuan/mt, with prices briefly rising before retreating to a high of 105,200 yuan/mt, then trending weakly downward to a low of 104,350 yuan/mt, and slightly rebounding before the close to settle at 104,610 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 250 yuan/mt and a loss of 170 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, while inventory in Jiangsu was 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a slight inventory buildup trend. According , the buildup was mainly driven by arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargoes, increasing supply-side pressure. Market performance was overall sluggish, with suppliers offering premiums at parity to 30 yuan/mt in early trading, but insufficient follow-through buying led to multiple rounds of downward adjustments in quotes. By the second session, actual transaction prices for standard-quality copper had dropped to a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers engaging in sell-offs, further dragging down the center of market premiums. Demand was weak overall, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time purchases and showing little willingness to chase higher prices. In summary, under the combined pressure of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 22, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,675 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,580 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventories surged, prompting suppliers to actively reduce prices to sell, while buyers aggressively restocked, resulting in overall trading activity better than last Friday.
(3) Imported Copper: On June 22, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $60/mt (price range: $55-69/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $56-70/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) remained flat from the previous trading day at $32/mt (price range: $28-36/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary Copper: On June 22 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,610 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium stood at 15 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day today. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.49, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.3. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,431 yuan/mt, up 223 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 870 yuan/mt. According survey, after the holiday, copper prices showed mediocre performance, and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod edged up 10 yuan/mt. End-user restocking sentiment was muted. As a result, although secondary copper rod enterprises wanted to replenish raw material inventory at low prices during the day, copper scrap suppliers were unwilling to sell amid the pullback in copper prices, and overall market transactions were mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, the first round of high-level talks between the US and Iran concluded yesterday. A joint statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan indicated that all parties agreed to a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days. Meanwhile, the US Treasury issued a 60-day temporary general license authorizing Iran to sell oil and finalize the signing of an agreement to unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. Regarding the situation in Lebanon, the US has established a “monitoring mechanism” and has set up a de-escalation mechanism for the Lebanese conflict. Cooling geopolitical risks eased inflation concerns, leading to a slight uptick in copper prices yesterday. Fundamentals side, supply side, increased arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes resulted in ample available supply, keeping overall supply relatively loose. Demand side, overall weakness persisted, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time procurement and showing little willingness to chase higher prices. Inventory side, as of Monday, June 22, national mainstream copper inventories rose WoW, with total inventory reaching 208,100 mt, up 78,500 mt from 129,600 mt in the same period last year, and inventory buildup was seen across all regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate slightly higher today.