1. National Day Stockpiling Sentiment Remains Weak, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Continue to Hold Firm 
September 24:
Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2510 contract were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 55 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 79,930 to 80,160 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper fluctuated between 79,940 and 79,990 yuan/mt, and surged to 80,030 yuan/mt around 11 a.m.; during the morning trading hours, the inter-month price spread was basically flat, with the current month's import loss at around 450 yuan/mt.
Intraday procurement and sales sentiment were both weak, as traders' willingness to sell decreased due to industry conferences, while downstream stocking sentiment was not strong and only just-in-time procurement was observed. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.12, and sales sentiment was 3.13. In the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 10-50 yuan/mt, with weak transactions; subsequently, transactions were concluded around a premium of 20 yuan/mt in Changzhou, and the center then dropped again to near parity. Non-registered brands remained firm, with transactions concluded around a discount of 60 yuan/mt and supply tight.
Copper prices stabilized at 80,000 yuan/mt, while downstream stocking sentiment was weak. Based on the spot copper trading sentiment in Shanghai during the first half of the week, this year's National Day stockpiling was weaker compared to the same period last year. Spot transactions are expected to continue around parity tomorrow.

2.US Fed Signals Further Interest Rate Cuts, Overnight LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Lower
Wednesday, September 24, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,976/mt, fluctuated considerably after opening and touched a low of $9,966/mt, then the center of copper prices rose to a high of $9,998/mt before showing a "W" pattern, and finally closed at $9,990/mt, down 0.08%, with trading volume reaching 11,000 lots and open interest reaching 289,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 79,980 yuan/mt, touched a high of 80,100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center moved down to a low of 79,860 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high afterward, and finally moved sideways to close at 79,970 yuan/mt, up 0.04%, with trading volume reaching 20,000 lots and open interest reaching 174,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On September 17, Canada's Atico Mining signed an investment protection agreement (IPA) with the Ecuadorian government, covering an investment of approximately $158 million, enjoying a 5% income tax reduction, and allowing for international arbitration in case of disputes. The agreement ensures legal protection for project assets. The La Plata project is in the final stage of environmental and mining permits. According to the 2024 feasibility study, the mine has reserves of 2.51 million mt with an average copper grade of 1.59% and zinc grade of 2.18%, and is expected to produce 9.71 million pounds of copper and 13.25 million pounds of zinc annually, with a mine life of over 8 years.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 23,#1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 55 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; #1 copper cathode prices were 79,860-80,160 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper briefly surged to 80,160 yuan/mt before starting to decline, fell to 79,860 yuan/mt by the end of the first section, then moved back to the range of 79,920-79,960 yuan/mt, and closed at 79,940 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was at BACK10-BACK30 yuan/mt; the import profit margin for SHFE copper front-month contract narrowed to a loss of 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating around 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream stockpiling for the National Day holiday is relatively slow, and spot premiums are expected to continue hovering around parity.
(2) Guangdong: On September 23, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 70 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,030 yuan/mt, down 235 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,930 yuan/mt, down 235 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream moderately increased procurement volume due to the approaching typhoon, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On September 23, warrant prices were $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $53-65/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in the first half of October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 23, the futures closing price was 79,940 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 55 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,400-73,600 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,799 yuan/mt, down 73 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 825 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, due to the impact of Typhoon "Hagibis", most secondary copper raw material yards in Guangdong will stop purchasing and shipping tomorrow, with the specific resumption date pending notification from enterprises.
(5) Inventory: On September 22, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 400 mt to 144,975 mt; on September 23, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 2,166 mt to 27,727 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, Powell stated that current interest rates remain relatively tight, while several US Fed officials anticipated further interest rate cuts in the future, increasing market optimism about additional rate cut room. The US dollar index fluctuated and fell, providing support for copper prices. Additionally, negotiations to resume Iraq's crude oil exports faced obstacles, slightly alleviating concerns about a crude oil supply surplus. International crude oil rebounded, providing slight support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling sentiment warmed slightly, but copper prices still fluctuated around 80,000 yuan/mt. High prices constrained enterprises' restocking willingness, leading to slow stockpiling actions. Overall, with macro front support and no significant increase in fundamental demand, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend rangebound today.

3.BC Copper closed lower on the day, down 0.21%. Downstream stocking progress remains slow ahead of the National Day holiday
Today, the most-traded BC copper 2510 contract opened at 71,080 yuan/mt and closed lower, with bulls reducing their positions. During the night session, BC copper initially fluctuated downward, touching a low of 70,760 yuan/mt, after which copper prices gradually moved higher. After the daytime session opened, it reached an intraday high of 71,160 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably before finally closing at 70,900 yuan/mt, down 0.21%. Open interest stood at 3,863 lots, down 149 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 2,249 lots. On the macro front, on September 23, Indonesian state media Antara quoted the country's Deputy Minister of Mining, Yuliot Tanjung, as saying that Indonesia had suspended 190 coal and mining exploitation license holders for failing to fulfill their obligations to restore damaged mine land or comply with production quota regulations. On the fundamentals side, supply side, mainstream brands had ample supply, while non-registered brands were relatively tight; demand side, as the National Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises' stockpiling pace was relatively slow, and concentrated procurement had not yet formed.
 
SHFE copper contract 2510 closed at 79,930 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2510 contract price of 70,900 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 80,117 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -187 between SHFE copper 2510 and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.

4.Grasberg Mine Continues Suspension, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight
Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,006.5/mt, touched a high of $10,013/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,950.5/mt before rising all the way to close at $10,002/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 13,000 lots and open interest at 290,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 80,080 yuan/mt, touched a high of 80,130 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center moved downward to a low of 79,820 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to close at 80,100 yuan/mt, down 0.02%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 173,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On September 20, rescue personnel found the bodies of two workers trapped in the accident on September 8 at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The accident was caused by a sudden inflow of wet material, trapping seven workers underground. Police have intervened to confirm identities, and the remaining five individuals are still under urgent search. Currently, Freeport Indonesia continues to suspend related underground mining operations at the Grasberg mine. As one of the world's important copper-gold mines, the suspension of Grasberg is expected to have some impact on the supply and market prices of gold and copper in the short term.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 22,#1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 80,100 to 80,350 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper briefly surged to 80,300 yuan/mt before starting to fall, then fluctuated between 80,080 and 80,160 yuan/mt; the inter-month price spread fluctuated between 10-30 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened again to nearly 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices stabilizing at 80,000 yuan/mt has somewhat weakened downstream stocking sentiment, but due to the continuous replenishment of imported material, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise, with overall transactions likely to center around levels above parity.
(2) Guangdong: On September 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 70 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,265 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,165 yuan/mt, up 305 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, higher copper prices made downstream buyers reluctant to purchase more, suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, and spot premiums declined.
(3) Imported copper: On September 22, warrant prices were $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $53-65/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 22, the futures closing price was 80,110 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,500-73,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,872 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 900 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises received average orders during the day. As downstream cable enterprises showed insufficient sentiment for stockpiling, secondary copper rod enterprises were also unwilling to purchase excessive recycled copper raw materials. Therefore, the raw material procurement offers from secondary copper rod enterprises were almost flat compared to last Friday.
(5) Inventory: On September 19, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,275 mt to 145,375 mt. On September 22, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 1,945 mt to 29,893 mt.
Price: On the macro front, after several US Fed officials sent hawkish signals regarding interest rate cuts, the market reassessed subsequent expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and investment plans. The US dollar index rose first and then fell, causing copper prices to decline before rebounding. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported supplies continued to arrive steadily, while domestic supply supplements were limited. Demand side, as copper prices returned above 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream stockpiling sentiment weakened. As of September 21, domestic copper cathode inventories decreased by 4,400 mt MoM to 144,500 mt. Overall, affected by the fundamental supply-demand pattern, copper prices are expected to have limited upside today.

5. Copper Prices Return to 80,000 yuan/mt, Shanghai Spot Copper Trading Stalemate
September 22:
Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2510 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average premium quoted at 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 80,100 to 80,350 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper briefly surged to 80,300 yuan/mt before starting to decline, then fluctuated between 80,080 and 80,160 yuan/mt; the inter-month price spread fluctuated between 10-30 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the current month SHFE copper contract expanded again to nearly 500 yuan/mt.
Imported cargoes continued to see concentrated arrivals over the weekend, and suppliers were active in selling, leading to increased selling sentiment; copper prices climbing back above 80,000 yuan/mt dampened purchasing interest again. The purchasing sentiment for electrolytic copper in the Shanghai region was 3.11, while the selling sentiment was 3.19. In the morning session, Jinchuan (plate) supplies were tight with few offers; CCC-P and Guixi were quoted at premiums of around 100-120 yuan/mt; Xiangguang and others saw offers drop from premiums of 70 yuan/mt to premiums of 40-50 yuan/mt for transactions; JCC and Lufang traded at premiums of around 40 yuan/mt; Polish (plate) and Peruvian (plate) traded at premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Other brands such as Zhongtiaoshan PC, Tiefeng, and Jinguan were quoted at premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt, with final transactions concluded in the range of parity to premiums of 20 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead, copper prices stabilizing above 80,000 yuan/mt has somewhat weakened downstream stocking sentiment, but as imported cargoes continue to supplement supply, spot premiums are expected to struggle to rise, with overall transactions likely to hover around parity or slightly above.