1.High Copper Prices Weigh on Demand, Enamelled Wire Industry Continues to Be Sluggish 
This week, the machine operating rate in the enamelled wire industry rebounded by 0.53 percentage points to 75.73% MoM. Mid-week, copper prices pulled back at certain stages, stimulating downstream demand for small-volume orders, which drove the weekly new orders up by 2.42 percentage points. However, overall industry activity remained at a low level. At the same time, affected by the current market environment, enamelled wire enterprises generally adopted the business strategy of "producing based on demand and controlling inventory" to avoid inventory risks, resulting in the days of inventories for finished products continuing to drop to 9.73 days. From an overall industry perspective, high copper prices remain the core factor restricting order releases: on one hand, price transmission along the industry chain is hindered, making it difficult for end-users to accept finished product price increases caused by sharp rises in raw material costs, leading to slow progress on previously signed orders; on the other hand, downstream sectors are still focused on digesting existing inventory, making only small purchases when there is actual demand. Additionally, end-users' ideal expectation for copper prices remains around 80,000 yuan per mt, which is significantly different from current copper prices, further suppressing demand release and keeping enamelled wire demand far below the level of the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are unlikely to see a significant pullback in the short term. The industry is expected to maintain a pattern of "slight fluctuations in operating rates and mediocre orders," with no clear momentum for demand recovery in the near term. The industry's machine operating rate is expected to remain at a low level next week, reaching 75.87%.

2.Tetelo Copper Ore Project Is Expected to Commence Production, LME Copper Rose Sharply Overnight 
Friday, October 24, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,799/mt, fluctuated considerably at the beginning of the session and touched a low of $10,784.5/mt, then fluctuated upward unilaterally and touched a high of $10,876/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved down, finally closing at $10,817/mt, up 1.49%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots and open interest reached 316,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 86,450 yuan/mt, touched a low of 86,230 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 86,890 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward and finally closing at 86,730 yuan/mt, up 1.34%. Trading volume reached 67,000 lots and open interest reached 255,000 lots.
[Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On October 22, the Tetelo copper mine project in Uíge Province, northern Angola, is expected to commence production. The mine is controlled by Chinese company Shining Star Icarus, with a total investment of approximately $250 million. Open-pit mining will be used for the first two years, with an expected annual output of approximately 25,000 mt of copper concentrates, and it will transition to underground mining in H2 2026. This move marks a key step for Angola in copper mine capacity and releases a positive signal for attracting more international mining investment to the country.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On October 23, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 85,290-85,690 yuan/mt. In the morning, the SHFE copper 2511 contract gradually fell from 85,500 yuan/mt, then surged to around 85,660 yuan/mt near 10 a.m., before slightly paring gains. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a discount of 40 yuan/mt and a discount of 20 yuan/mt. Import losses for front-month SHFE copper widened to around 900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, as it is Friday, trading volume is expected to increase WoW, but if copper prices continue to approach 86,000 yuan/mt, spot premiums for SHFE copper may continue to be suppressed.
(2) Guangdong: On October 23, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 65 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,440 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 85,355 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices rose again, consumption weakened, and market trading was quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On October 23, warrant prices were $35-43/mt, QP November, with the average price up $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-64/mt, QP November, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-16/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on October 23, the futures closing price was 85,590 yuan/mt, up 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,200-77,400 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,366 yuan/mt, up 241 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,720 yuan/mt. According to an  survey, imports of recycled copper raw materials in September were 184,100 mt, up 2.63% MoM and 14.8% YoY. Under current circumstances, customs inspections of certificates of origin, which have slowed the customs clearance speed of recycled copper raw materials, have not yet had a significant impact on September imports. However, import traders expect that imports of recycled copper raw materials in October will be affected by extended customs clearance times due to certificate of origin inspections, leading to a decline in clearance volume. expects imports of recycled copper raw materials in October to drop by 5,000-6,000 mt in physical content.
(5) Inventory: On October 22, LME copper cathode inventory increased by 75 mt to 136,925 mt; on October 23, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 505 mt to 36,048 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, the Russia-Ukraine situation remains tense. Zelensky announced that Ukraine already possesses domestically produced missiles with a range of 3,000 km and firmly refuses territorial concessions. Putin responded that new sanctions are unlikely to shake Russia's economic fundamentals. The intensifying geopolitical game has boosted market risk-off sentiment, supporting copper prices. Meanwhile, the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released. The CPC Central Committee will hold a press conference on the morning of the 24th to introduce and interpret the spirit of the plenum. The market maintains an optimistic outlook on future copper demand, further supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of both imported and domestic supplies decreased, leading to relatively tight overall supply. Demand side, although copper prices remain high, downstream acceptance of copper prices is slowly improving, with some rigid demand being released. Inventory side, as of Thursday, October 23, copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 5,000 mt from Monday to 181,600 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to have limited upside potential today.

3.Copper prices edged slightly higher, while spot copper transactions on the SHFE were noticeably subdued.
October 23:
Today, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the current month 2511 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 85,290 to 85,690 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2511 contract gradually declined from 85,500 yuan/mt, then surged to around 85,660 yuan/mt near 10 a.m., before slightly retreating from its gains. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a contango of 40 yuan/mt and a contango of 20 yuan/mt. The import loss for the current month's SHFE copper expanded to around 900 yuan/mt.
During the day, both purchasing and sales sentiment weakened. As copper prices rose, suppliers became less willing to sell after being pressured to lower prices, while downstream buyers mainly sought low-priced sources. According to market feedback, orders above 85,500 yuan/mt significantly decreased. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.98, and the sales sentiment was 3.11.Suppliers initially offered standard-quality copper at a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt, but prices were quickly driven down to around parity. As copper prices climbed, brands like Tiefeng and Zhongtiaoshan were pressured to trade at a discount of around 20 yuan/mt. High-quality copper prices were also dragged down during the day, while the price center for SX-EW copper shifted lower due to arrivals from Myanmar and BMK. Non-registered sources continued to trade at a discount of 100 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, as Friday approaches, trading volume is expected to increase WoW. However, if copper prices continue to approach 86,000 yuan/mt, spot premiums for SHFE copper may remain suppressed.

4.Global Copper Scrap Restructuring: From Policy to Resources Rebalancing
I. Signals of a Global Market Reshuffle
The global copper scrap trade is entering a new cycle of restructuring. Over the past decade, the global trade network for copper scrap has been highly dependent on China, forming a circular model of “raw material export – Chinese smelting – product re-export.” However, since China implemented the Solid Waste Import Ban in 2018, the global supply chain has been forced to reorganize, and a large volume of copper scrap has been redirected to Southeast Asian countries.
By 2020, as Southeast Asian countries gradually tightened import controls, the global copper scrap market ongoing a “second phase of flow rebalancing.” According to publicly available information, global copper scrap trade volume reached approximately 6 million metric tons in 2024. China remains the largest importer of copper scrap, accounting for around 40% of global imports. The United States and the European Union are the main exporters, but their export destinations have become increasingly diversified, indicating a clear pattern of regional redistribution. The global copper scrap trade network is thus undergoing a fundamental structural reshaping.
II. China’s Policy Shift and Global Implications
 
China
Throughout the evolution of global copper scrap trade, policy has always been the central factor shaping trade flows. Over the past decade, China’s regulatory transformation has effectively marked the beginning of the global copper scrap market’s restructuring. For years, China was the world’s largest importer of copper scrap, accounting for roughly 40% of global trade volumes. At that time, China allowed the import of certain solid wastes (including used wires, motors, electronic parts, and plastics) under the category of “recyclable resources,” to be processed domestically. This model contributed significantly to resource recovery and raw material supply but also caused serious environmental pollution and regulatory disorder.
In 2018, China officially launched its Solid Waste Import Ban, initially prohibiting 24 categories of solid waste, later expanding the scope, and by 2021, banning all forms of solid waste imports. Within this framework, copper scrap became a special case. Through the GB/T 38471-2019 “Recycled Copper Raw Materials” national standard, China reclassified high-purity, low-impurity copper scrap as “recyclable raw material” instead of “solid waste.” This shift transformed the import system from “easy customs clearance” to “quality-first control.”
The impact was immediate: low-quality copper scrap was effectively blocked, and large volumes of U.S. and European copper scrap were diverted elsewhere. Data clearly reflects this policy effect — China’s copper scrap imports fell from 3.55 million tons in 2017 to 2.58 million tons in 2018, a 27% drop, and further declined to 0.95 million tons by 2020, down 73% from the 2017 peak. Although imports gradually recovered to 2.25 million tons in 2024, they remain far below historical highs. China’s high-standard policy framework in 2018 directly triggered the first wave of global copper scrap trade restructuring.
Southeast Asia
After China tightened its import controls, Southeast Asia temporarily became the world’s main “alternative receiving region” for copper scrap. Countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, leveraging their proximity and more lenient customs procedures, quickly absorbed the trade volume diverted from China.
For example, Malaysia’s copper scrap imports surged from 17,000 tons in 2017 to a peak of 570,000 tons in 2019, before declining to 448,000 tons in 2021. This rapid expansion, however, led to environmental pollution, smuggling, and non-compliant processing, prompting these countries to strengthen regulations:
Malaysia introduced the SIRIM certification system in 2021, requiring copper scrap imports to contain at least 94.75% copper and limiting impurity levels, while enhancing port inspection and traceability, significantly extending customs clearance times.
Vietnam enacted a new Environmental Protection Law in 2020, imposing stricter purity standards and a quota-based import management system.
Thailand amended its Ministry of Environment regulation in 2023, reinforcing import licensing and source declaration, and explicitly banning mixed scrap imports.
These measures have transformed Southeast Asia from a “transit hub” for copper scrap into a region with higher environmental and regulatory standards. The effects were evident in import data — in Malaysia, total copper scrap imports dropped from 448,000 tons in 2021 to 228,000 tons in 2022, a 49% year-on-year decline, and only modestly recovered to 270,000 tons by 2024, still 39% below pre-regulation peaks. As a result, many traders have shifted their supply chains toward India and the Middle East, marking the beginning of the second rebalancing of global trade flows.
Europe and the United States
Meanwhile, Western economies have moved toward dual-end control of both exports and production of copper scrap. In the European Union, the Basel Convention and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have become the core policy pillars — restricting exports of low-grade scrap and integrating carbon emissions into trade requirements. The goal is to prevent pollution leakage while encouraging closed-loop recycling within the EU. In the United States, the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) continues to promote export standardization, while legislation and tax incentives have been introduced to boost domestic recycling and reduce reliance on overseas reprocessing.
Overall, the world’s major copper scrap importers and exporters are shifting from “open access” to “high-standard and environmentally constrained” trade models. While this raises trade friction and reduces efficiency, it also accelerates the sector’s evolution toward quality, transparency, and sustainability.
III. Restructuring Trade Flows: The Rise of New Hubs
Policy evolution has not only changed the direction of copper scrap flows but has also driven companies to restructure their supply chains and capacity distribution. In recent years, the global copper scrap market has evolved from “Southeast Asian transit” to “multi-regional rebalancing.”
Phase I (2018–2020): Southeast Asia as China’s Substitute Transit Zone After China’s import ban, massive volumes of copper scrap from the U.S., Europe, and Japan were rerouted to Southeast Asia. Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand became key transit and light-processing centers, where copper scrap entered under the label of “recyclable resources,” underwent basic sorting or melting, and was then re-exported to China for smelting.
Phase II (2021–2024): Tightened Regulation and Diversified Flows As environmental and compliance challenges surfaced, Southeast Asian nations introduced stricter import controls, leading to flow diversification. India and the Middle East emerged as new receiving centers — India with its robust smelting base and growing downstream demand, and the UAE with free-port policies that attracted numerous recycling plants. Other players such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are also expanding recycling capacity and becoming integral to the new global flow network.
Phase III (2025 onward): The Era of Multi-Polar Trade The copper scrap trade is now entering a new phase of structural realignment. With rapid expansion of recycling capacity in India, the UAE, and South Korea, emerging markets are building comprehensive smelting and refining systems. Global copper scrap trade is transitioning from dependence on a single dominant market to a multi-center system, led by nations with policy and production advantages. According to, from 2015 to 2024, copper scrap imports into India and the Middle East grew steadily — India’s imports rose from 175,000 tons in 2015 to 330,000 tons in 2024.
IV. Geopolitical and Future Dynamics
The global copper scrap trade is shifting from being price-driven to being shaped primarily by politics and compliance. International trade policy, green standards, and geopolitical friction are collectively redefining the cost and structure of cross-border flows.
The prolonged U.S.–China trade tensions have disrupted traditional trade chains. To avoid tariff barriers and origin-based restrictions, some materials are rerouted through Southeast Asia or Mexico, forming increasingly complex supply networks. However, this “circuitous trade” faces growing risks as customs scrutiny and origin verification intensify, extending clearance times and raising costs.
Simultaneously, the EU’s CBAM is exerting profound influence on the global metals supply chain. For Asian recyclers and smelters, low-carbon production, green certification, and traceability have become essential requirements for maintaining access to European markets. In response, Southeast Asian nations are accelerating the development of green smelting ecosystems, a move that drives industrial upgrading but also raises compliance costs.
Looking ahead, Southeast Asia’s role as the world’s primary re-export and reprocessing center for copper scrap is expected to diminish. While environmental regulation and import scrutiny will suppress low-end operations, India and the Middle East are poised to become new hubs, leveraging cost advantages, port infrastructure, and open investment policies.
In summary, under the combined forces of environmental policy, trade barriers, and geopolitical shifts, global copper scrap trade will evolve toward greener and more localized supply chains. estimates that by 2030, cross-border copper scrap trade costs will rise by about 15% from current levels, while industry profits will increasingly shift from traditional traders to integrated smelting and compliance-oriented enterprises.
V. Copper Scrap: From Waste to Strategic Resource
In the past decade, trade patterns were shaped largely by policy and geopolitical shifts. Today, however, the restructuring of copper scrap flows represents not just a trade realignment, but a systemic industrial transformation.
The convergence of geopolitical tensions, environmental compliance, and carbon standards is collectively forging a new global copper scrap order. Policy focus has moved from “restriction and access” toward “certification and traceability,” while enterprises are shifting from “export orientation” to “local recycling and green smelting.”
As countries pursue resource self-sufficiency and circular economy strategies, the value of copper itself is being redefined — copper scrap is no longer mere recoverable waste, but a strategic material essential to energy transition and manufacturing resilience.
It is foreseeable that the global copper scrap market will continue to evolve toward greater transparency, standardization, and sustainability. Those who can establish compliant, low-carbon, and traceable systems first will secure a decisive advantage in the next phase of the global copper competition.

5. TD Cowen Raises 2026 Copper Price Forecast to $5.25 per Pound
On Tuesday, October 21, the COMEX nearby copper futures contract is currently trading around $4.9 per pound, showing relatively resilient performance amid a sharp decline in precious metal prices.
TD Cowen highlighted in a report that the market is tightening and raised its 2026 price forecast from $4.40 to $5.25 per pound, while increasing its long-term price estimate from $4.25 to $4.50 per pound.
The forecast adjustment follows supply disruptions at several major mines, affecting approximately 5% of global supply. Copper prices had climbed after an accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
On September 8, a large-scale wet ore surge occurred at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, blocking access routes. Freeport immediately suspended operations at the mine and declared force majeure on its contracts. The Grasberg mine is the world's second-largest copper concentrate producer, with 2024 copper ore production of 816,500 mt, accounting for about 3.5% of global output. Prior to the accident, Grasberg had transitioned from open-pit to underground mining and completed its capacity ramp-up. Following the incident, Freeport officially lowered its production guidance, stating it would not meet the original Q4 sales target of 445 million pounds (approximately 200,000 mt of copper ore). Additionally, the company plans a phased restart of the affected area in 2026, reducing its full-year 2026 production target by 35% from 1.7 billion to 1.1 billion pounds and cutting copper ore output from 770,000 mt to 498,000 mt. Actual production from the mine this year may only reach 500,000 mt.
Other supply disruptions this year include the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine being affected by an earthquake, production difficulties at the QB copper mine, and a mine collapse at El Teniente, collectively accounting for about 2% of global supply.
Looking ahead, TD Cowen predicts a copper market supply deficit of 222,000 mt in 2026 and warns that this figure may be conservative.
Longer term, declining output from maturing copper mines, combined with a lack of greenfield investment, means copper prices are expected to rise inevitably to stimulate development.
Year-to-date, copper demand has been stronger than expected.