1.Japanese Customs Updates Copper Wire Nodules Standard LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Last Friday
Monday, November 24, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $10,612/mt last Friday night, hitting an initial low of $10,610.5/mt, then the price center fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $10,798.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $10,778/mt, up 0.86%, with a trading volume of 24,000 lots and open interest of 321,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 85,750 yuan/mt last Friday night, touched a low of 85,670 yuan/mt initially, then fluctuated upward to a high of 86,230 yuan/mt by the close, and finally settled at 86,180 yuan/mt, up 0.61%, with a trading volume of 44,000 lots and open interest of 189,000 lots.
[Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On November 21, Japan Customs recently updated the classification standard for copper wire nodules, adding a definition for those with a diameter or thickness above 0.00035 meters and a copper content of 99.9%. Copper wire nodules that do not meet this standard may be classified under HS code 7406 for copper powder and flakes in the future, rather than under copper scrap. This adjustment implies that some copper wire nodules exported to Japan may face product category tariffs, increasing import costs. The industry expects this policy to raise the import threshold for recycled copper raw materials into Japan and prompt traders to reassess their export structure to Japan.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On November 21, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a premium of 20-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 85,650 to 85,980 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper futures mainly fluctuated between 85,600 and 85,830 yuan/mt, with the inter-month spread fluctuating between a contango of 40 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to over 800 yuan/mt. Looking ahead this week, warrants are expected to continue flowing out, but as it is the long-term contract negotiation season, suppliers are expected to have limited room for price concessions. Spot transactions for SHFE copper are still expected to maintain a small premium.
(2) Guangdong: On November 21, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 50-140 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40-0 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,855 yuan/mt, down 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 85,740 yuan/mt, down 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, lower copper prices stimulated downstream restocking, pushing spot premiums higher, with a generally positive trading atmosphere.
(3) Imported copper: On November 21, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; bill of lading prices were $44-56/mt, QP December, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF bill of lading) was $0-12/mt, QP December, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 21, the futures closing price was 85,670 yuan/mt, down 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw materials fell by 300 yuan/mt. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,000-78,200 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,675 yuan/mt, down 391 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,180 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, importers of recycled copper raw materials indicated that although downstream procurement volume weakened as the year-end approached, the substantial domestic demand kept imported secondary copper raw materials in a state of undersupply over the long term. China's imports of recycled copper raw materials in October were 196,600 mt in physical content, up 6.81% MoM and up 7.35% YoY. Despite the sustained domestic demand, October imports of recycled copper raw materials increased instead of decreasing, exceeding market expectations.
(5) Inventories: On November 20, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,900 mt to 155,025 mt. On November 21, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 5,193 mt to 49,790 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, dovish comments from US officials boosted expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Additionally, progress in US-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is expected to advance the peace process, easing market risk-off sentiment and also supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, warrant releases in some regions alleviated tight supply. Demand side, procurement sentiment continued to recover as copper prices corrected. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support today.

2.The Difficult Balance Between Policy Uncertainty and Price Volatility
In October 2025, the secondary copper rod market struggled under multiple pressures including policy uncertainty, volatile copper prices, and weak end-use demand, generally characterized by an operating rate fluctuating at lows, diverging profit margins, and regional structural adjustments. The average monthly operating rate for the secondary copper rod industry saw a slight rebound to 26.46% compared to September, but still decreased 2.61 percentage points YoY, reflecting insufficient market recovery momentum. At the beginning of the month, affected by the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays combined with a sharp surge in copper prices, the weekly operating rate of enterprises once hit a bottom of 11.93%, with some companies opting for production halts and maintenance to mitigate risks. As the holidays ended and copper prices staged a pullback, the operating rate gradually recovered to 22.8% in the middle and late parts of the month, yet the monthly average remained below the level typical for the traditional peak season. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod showed significant fluctuations, with the monthly average widening to over 1,700 yuan/mt, peaking at 1,848 yuan/mt, which provided economic advantages for secondary copper rod. However, limited new orders from end-use wire and cable enterprises prevented the price spread advantage from effectively translating into actual consumption.
Policy uncertainty became the core factor constraining market vitality. Local incentive policies related to Notice No. 770 remained unclear in major production areas such as Jiangxi and Anhui, leading many secondary copper rod enterprises to maintain a wait-and-see stance. In Jiangxi, a concentrated capacity region, corporate production strategies turned conservative: on one hand, shifting to anode plate production to maintain basic operations, and on the other, strictly purchasing imported recycled copper raw materials with invoices to avoid tax risks. This resulted in an actual contraction in secondary copper rod supply, with orders shifting to regions like Hubei where policies were relatively stable, prompting local enterprises to temporarily increase furnace operations. The import market also faced pressure, as customs in areas like Guangdong and Ningbo strengthened inspections of recycled copper raw materials, extending clearance cycles by 15-30 days, which exacerbated difficulties in procuring tax-included raw materials.
Supply-demand imbalance persisted throughout the month. On the supply side, suppliers of recycled copper raw materials held back sales when copper prices surged, leading to tight circulating supply. On the demand side, weakness continued, with no improvement in orders from end-use sectors such as construction and home appliances. Downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of high-priced copper rods, mostly purchasing as needed. Although the gross sales profit margin for secondary copper rod reached a weekly high of 1,602 yuan/mt, the issue of accumulating finished product inventories became prominent, with sample enterprise inventories rising to 3,560 mt by month-end, up 980 mt MoM, reflecting the dilemma of "price without market." Market divergence intensified: copper cathode rod enterprises saw their operating rates decline due to order diversion, while secondary copper rod, despite having cost advantages, was constrained by policies and demand, making it difficult to achieve volume expansion. Looking ahead to November, the market is expected to seek a new balance amid policy clarity and price adjustments. As copper prices retreat from highs (with the anticipated trading range shifting lower), end-users may find a restocking window, stimulating a slight rebound in the operating rate of secondary copper rod. If the details of Notice No. 770 are implemented, enterprises in Jiangxi, Anhui, and other regions may gradually resume production, driving raw material procurement demand. However, the historical off-season effect cannot be overlooked: falling temperatures in northern regions will curb outdoor construction, making it difficult for cable consumption to improve significantly, and limiting room for the price difference between primary metal and scrap to widen. The operating rate of secondary copper rod is projected to show a "low first, high later" trend in November, but regional supply-demand mismatches will persist. Enterprises should closely monitor copper price trends and policy developments, striving to balance just-in-time procurement with inventory control to navigate structural opportunities and risks in a volatile market.

3.Amid Expectations of Copper Concentrate Shortages, How Are Smelters Adjusting Their Operating Strategies?
As of November 21, Imported Copper Concentrate Index (TC) stood at -$42.32/dmt, marking a full year of 2025 with spot TC levels persistently in negative territory, the weakest in historical record. The market widely expects that 2026 long-term contract TC will likely remain negative. From a supply-side perspective, global greenfield project additions are extremely limited. At the same time, existing mines have faced frequent operational disruptions, with some producers failing to meet output targets. The incremental ramp-up of smelters in Indonesia and Africa has also temporarily diverted copper concentrate flows. Against this backdrop, the supply-demand imbalance in copper concentrate is deepening.
In response to the persistently worsening TC, smelters worldwide are actively adjusting. Since the start of Q4 2025, global smelters have shown significantly more aggressive bidding activity compared with previous years. Notable examples include SPCC, Anglo, and LS, which have launched tenders for 2025–2026 delivery slots in order to lock in 2026 processing margins early, ease financial statement pressure, and gain leverage ahead of long-term contract negotiations. Some companies have also significantly raised prepayment ratios to ensure stable feedstock supply and mitigate liquidity risks.
On the Chinese side, domestic smelters are also actively adjusting their export structure to counteract rising costs and negative TC pressure. In recent weeks, several major Chinese smelters have initiated preliminary negotiations for 2026 USD-denominated cathode export long-term contracts, relying on stable downstream demand to support export order locking under processing trade frameworks. Thanks to robust demand for copper rod and tube products, Chinese smelters have notably expanded their market share in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. According to research, China’s copper cathode exports in 2025 are expected to reach approximately 700,000 tons, an increase of around 200,000 tons YoY. This strategy has helped hedge against the pricing loss caused by negative imported TC while expanding smelters' market influence across the Asia-Pacific region.

Looking ahead to 2026, the tight balance in the copper concentrate market is expected to persist.
Constrained by project commissioning schedules and ongoing mine operation uncertainties, global supply elasticity remains limited, while refined copper smelting capacity expansion is still mainly concentrated in China, Africa, and Indonesia. Based on the current market structure, COMEX-LME arbitrage pricing mechanisms have already been reflected in some long-term contract offers by smelters. In 2026, regional supply-demand mismatches are likely to create key arbitrage opportunities, making this one of the most important themes in the spot copper concentrate trade.

4.BC Copper 2512 contract closed down 0.77%, US Fed interest rate cut complexity weighs on copper prices 
Today, the most-traded BC copper 2512 contract opened at 76,950 yuan/mt and closed higher for the day. In the night session, after opening, the contract initially touched a high of 77,200 yuan/mt, but then, as bulls reduced their positions, the center of copper prices declined all the way, approaching the session end with a low of 76,180 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 76,320 yuan/mt, down 590 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.77%. Open interest fell to 3,329 lots, a decrease of 231 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume dropped to 3,931 lots, also down 231 lots from the previous session. On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls data grew more than expected, yet the unemployment rate hit a four-year high, complicating the US Fed's December interest rate decision, which pushed the US dollar index higher and kept copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, warrant outflows eased the tight supply situation in the market, and as prices fell, downstream purchasing sentiment continued to recover.
SHFE copper contract 2512 settled at 85,650 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2512 contract price of 76,320 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 86,242 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -592 yuan/mt between the SHFE copper 2512 contract and the BC copper contract. The spread remained inverted and widened compared to the previous day.

5. Divergent U.S. Job Market Data, Dollar Index Rebounds, Copper Prices Slightly Under Pressure During the Week 
LME copper and SHFE copper generally continued to fluctuate at highs in the doldrums this week, with the market center slightly lower. Earlier, the US Fed showed significant internal disagreement over a December interest rate cut, market expectations for a rate cut cooled, and the US dollar index continued its rebound, putting sustained pressure on copper prices.
US labour market data showed significant divergence: non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly increased, while the unemployment rate conversely rose to a four-year high, leading to thick wait-and-see sentiment in the market and an increased probability of expectations for no rate cut in December.
Fundamentally, copper concentrates offers increased compared to earlier this week, and spot market activity picked up. Antofagasta and Japanese smelters initiated long-term contract negotiations for 2026 copper concentrates mid-week. Domestically, inventory remained volatile; after the delivery of the SHFE copper 2511 contract, market premiums edged up slightly, but consumption still struggled to show an increase.
Looking ahead to next week, the US year-end interest rate cut path still lacks guidance from key data. The release of key US data such as October PCE and Q3 GDP will provide more clues. However, amid geopolitical influences, copper prices are more likely to rise than fall. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $10,600-10,850/mt, and SHFE copper between 85,000-87,500 yuan/mt. On the spot side, with important long-term contract price negotiations for items like copper concentrates and copper cathode scheduled around the CESCO conference next week, the spot market is expected to be sluggish, but attention should be paid to the progress of long-term contract talks.