1.Suppliers actively held prices firm for shipments, but actual transactions were relatively quiet
Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, an increase of 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to 160 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 180 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,175 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,105 yuan/mt, down 335 yuan/mt.
Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced consumption. Although downstream users were already in a semi-holiday state, suppliers held prices firm with strong sentiment, pushing premiums higher; however, actual transactions were sluggish. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.04, down 0.2 from the previous trading day, while the shipment sentiment was 3.21, up 0.16 (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at 0 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 180 yuan/mt.
Overall, suppliers actively held prices firm for shipments, but actual transactions were quiet, and the market is expected to become more sluggish in the next two days.

2.Bulgarian Copper Ore Reserves Increase, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Slightly Decline Overnight
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,089/mt overnight. At the beginning of the session, the price center shifted downward, probing to $13,060/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $13,160/mt, followed by wide swings before finally closing at $13,100/mt, a drop of 0.64%. Trading volume reached 12,200 lots, and open interest stood at 325,000 lots, a decrease of 1,683 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 101,660 yuan/mt overnight. It fluctuated upward initially, touching a high of 102,100 yuan/mt, then experienced wide swings, probing down to 101,510 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price center shifted somewhat upward, finally closing at 101,730 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.13%. Trading volume reached 34,800 lots, and open interest was 158,000 lots, down 1,466 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction.
[Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) According to foreign media reports, DPM Metals' Chelopech polymetallic mine in Bulgaria saw an increase in resources, extending the mine life to 2036, with annual production reaching 160,000 gold equivalent. Currently, the project's reserves increased by 42% to 23.2 million mt, with grades of gold at 2.18 g/mt, silver at 8.35 g/mt, and copper at 0.6%. In terms of metal content, this equates to 1.6 million ounces of gold, 308,400 mt of copper, and 6.2 million ounces of silver. Additionally, resources also increased to 15.3 million mt, with grades of gold at 1.96 g/mt and copper at 0.57%.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 10, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise, opening at 101,840 yuan/mt. After opening, the price dropped slightly, then fluctuated between 101,460 yuan/mt and 101,650 yuan/mt, followed by an increase, twice touching a high of 101,850 yuan/mt, before pulling back to close at 101,210 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 450 yuan/mt to 350 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged from a loss of 900 yuan/mt to 760 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot premiums/discounts are expected to move down under pressure. During the day, suppliers showed willingness to sell off goods, while downstream consumption weakened as some enterprises entered the holiday period and stockpiling was largely completed, leading to a slight drop in spot premiums/discounts. Supply side, previously locked-in imported cargoes arrived at ports successively, gradually increasing market circulation. However, it is noteworthy that to capture the spread profit, holders of most delivery brands chose to hold back goods awaiting delivery, leading to a tightening of deliverable spot supply in the market. Meanwhile, purchase willingness from buyers was weak, resulting in a stagnant supply-demand stalemate, which is expected to suppress spot trade activity and the performance of premiums/discounts.
(2) Guangdong: On February 10, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average discount at 105 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 260 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 240 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
(3) Imported copper: Warrant prices were $30-46/mt on February 10, QP February, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $14-26/mt, QP March, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: The futures closing price was 101,460 yuan/mt at 11:30 on February 10, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 5 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM today. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,500-89,700 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,753 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,460 yuan/mt. According to the survey, most secondary copper rod enterprises have entered the Chinese New Year break mode, with the majority of factories completing all shipments today. The number of quotations from secondary copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, and market transactions are expected to be minimal in the coming trading days.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump called on the US Fed to cut interest rates, while officials stated that inflation remains relatively high and there is no urgent need for rate cuts. US December retail sales data fell short of expectations. Fundamentals showed a weak supply-demand pattern: on the supply side, some imported copper arrived, making market supply more relaxed; on the demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream users was largely completed, with weak purchasing sentiment. Copper prices were under pressure due to weak demand. Overall, copper prices fluctuated within a limited range last night and are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound today.

3.Global Copper Inventories Hit New Highs, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Continue Overnight Gains
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,025/mt, dipped to $12,975/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,228/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,185/mt, a gain of 0.96%. Trading volume reached 15,200 lots, and open interest reached 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,466 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance indicated bulls increasing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,740 yuan/mt, touched a low of 101,280 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, probing to 102,500 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,450 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.93%. Trading volume reached 41,800 lots, and open interest reached 165,000 lots, a decrease of 4,251 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance indicated bears reducing positions.
[ Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued to rebound last week, with the latest inventory level at 183,275 mt, rising to a near nine-month high. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that in the week of February 6, SHFE copper inventories continued to accumulate, with weekly inventories increasing by 6.83% to 248,911 mt, rising to an over ten-month high. INE copper inventories increased by 2,554 mt to 18,348 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level at 589,081 mt, again hitting a new phase high.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 9, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of opening higher with a gap and then pulling back slightly. The opening price was 101,900 yuan/mt. After opening, the price rose slightly, touching a high of 102,120 yuan/mt, then pulled back, fluctuating between 101,300 yuan/mt and 101,700 yuan/mt. By the close, the price was 101,300 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and the next contract ranged between 390 yuan/mt and 270 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged between a loss of 680 yuan/mt and 580 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot premiums/discounts are expected to face downward pressure. During the day, copper prices rose slightly, suppressing downstream demand, and actual market transactions were sluggish; coupled with some suppliers liquidating cargoes, spot premiums/discounts dropped slightly. Supply side, some price ratio-locked cargoes secured earlier when the import window was open arrived at ports for circulation; attention is needed on subsequent cargo arrivals. Short-term spot supply is expected to gradually increase. Demand side, as some downstream enterprises entered the holiday, and most top-tier enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, actual procurement demand showed a weakening trend.
(2) Guangdong: On February 9, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 105 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 240 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 101,395 yuan/mt, up 2,445 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 101,260 yuan/mt, up 2,425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, hit by the dual impact of a significant rise in copper prices and increased downstream holiday closures approaching the Chinese New Year long holiday, suppliers actively lowered prices for shipments yesterday, with overall trading being sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On February 9, warrant prices were $30-46/mt, QP February, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $14-26/mt, QP March, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 9, the futures closing price was 101,300 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 35 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 9, copper scrap prices rose 1,300 yuan/mt WoW; Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 89,300-89,500 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,093 yuan/mt, down 34 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,320 yuan/mt. According to the survey, copper scrap traders reported very few spot orders during the day, with shipments mainly consisting of long-term contracts yesterday.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Maritime Administration recommended US merchant ships avoid Iranian waters, and US officials commented on AI's impact on employment and weakening confidence in the US dollar. A weaker US dollar supported copper prices, but weak domestic demand limited upside room. Fundamentally, supply side, domestic copper arrivals decreased, while imported copper supply is expected to gradually increase; demand side, overall performance was weak due to early holidays at some downstream enterprises. Inventory side, as of Monday, February 9, copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased slightly by 0.27% WoW from the previous Monday, but saw minor destocking from the previous Thursday. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.

4.Copper Inventories in Major Domestic Regions Continued to Build Up Over the Weekend
February 9 news:
As of Monday, February 9, national mainstream copper inventories increased 0.27% WoW, but showed a destocking trend compared to last Thursday. Regional performances diverged, with only Shanghai avoiding inventory buildup, while all other mainstream regions experienced accumulation.
Specifically, Shanghai's performance was particularly unusual, as destocking occurred even as the Chinese New Year holiday approached. The main reasons were last week's significant copper price correction boosting consumption, coupled with reduced arrivals of domestic supplies. Jiangsu's inventory rose due to increased arrivals of domestic copper. Guangdong also saw inventory buildup, primarily because more local enterprises began holidays, end-use consumption weakened, and warehouse arrivals increased simultaneously.
Looking ahead, supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to increase, while domestic copper arrivals remain stable, leading to ample overall market supply. Demand side, end-use demand is gradually weakening as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches. According to surveys, the weekly operating rate for copper cathode rod is projected to fall to 55.4% this week, down 13.67 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the current market shows a "supply increment, marginally weakening consumption" supply-demand pattern, and social inventory is expected to accumulate this week.

5.Sky-High Copper Prices & Policy Shift Grip Chinese Secondary Copper Smelters
The operating rate for secondary copper rod was 20.17% in January 2026, exceeding the expected 18.56%, but decreased 0.25 percentage points MoM and 6.73 percentage points YoY. China's secondary copper rod market experienced a month of contradictions and stalemate amid unprecedented high copper prices and complex policy environments. Although copper prices repeatedly hit new highs driven by macro sentiment and capital flows, with the most-traded SHFE copper contract once breaking through 113,000 yuan/mt and showing huge monthly fluctuations, the actual market transactions starkly contrasted with the heated futures, revealing historically low industry production activity. Although the price difference between primary metal and scrap once widened to a historical high of over 6,000 yuan/mt, theoretically making secondary copper rod highly economically advantageous, neither the purchase willingness of downstream wire and cable enterprises nor the production enthusiasm of secondary copper rod plants was effectively stimulated. The market fell into a typical dilemma of "price surge without demand."
This deep "divergence between price and volume" is rooted in multiple structural contradictions. First, high and wildly swinging absolute copper prices have completely suppressed end-user physical demand. Downstream enterprises widely adopted a "demand postponement" strategy, believing copper prices are inflated with room for correction, thus limiting procurement to fulfilling unavoidable historical orders, and some even planned early Chinese New Year holidays, causing the traditional pre-holiday stockpiling trend to completely fail. Second, policy compliance pressure has become another constraint on market vitality. After New Year's Day, stricter tax audits on "reverse invoicing" businesses across regions forced most secondary copper rod and scrap anode plate enterprises to fully switch to purchasing higher-priced imported or domestic taxed copper scrap to avoid risks. This not only intensified periodic shortages of compliant raw materials and raised production costs but also led many small and medium-sized enterprises to suspend production and wait due to limited invoice quotas or inability to bear tax costs. Weakness on both supply and demand sides resulted in an awkward situation: secondary copper rod plants dared not quote prices for fear of "taking orders at low prices but purchasing at high prices," while suppliers held back sales due to bearish outlooks or policy risks, creating a huge psychological price gap between buyers and sellers and nearly drying up market liquidity. 
Market speculation peaked in late January. Driven by factors such as overseas geopolitical tensions, copper prices surged violently by over 6,000 yuan/mt in a single Thursday session, reaching a historic peak of 113,880 yuan/mt during the night session. However, this extreme rally was primarily driven by traders’ futures arbitrage activities, while genuine orders from end-users nearly vanished, creating an extreme state of “speculative heat and physical coldness.” As prices retreated after the rapid rise, market sentiment cooled quickly, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap narrowed. In Jiangxi, the discount of secondary copper rod against copper futures sharply contracted from nearly 2,400 yuan/mt to below 1,100 yuan/mt, drastically compressing enterprises’ theoretical profit margins.
Looking ahead to February, the market stalemate is expected to see little fundamental improvement. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics will gradually halt, downstream enterprises will suspend operations, and physical consumption demand will further shrink. Although copper prices may pull back from extreme highs, the lack of strong end-user orders and lingering policy risks will make it difficult to effectively stimulate substantial restocking demand from processors. The market is likely to enter a “holiday mode” ahead of schedule, with trading becoming increasingly sluggish. The secondary copper rod industry will continue operating at low rates, with enterprises focusing on clearing backlog orders and managing operational risks. The prospect of market recovery will depend on a genuine rebound in end-user orders after the holiday and whether the long-standing fiscal and tax policy uncertainties can be resolved with clear and stable arrangements, thereby rebuilding stable operational expectations and procurement mechanisms.