1.Supplier Sell-Offs and Downstream Counteroffers, Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Came Under Pressure
March 24:
In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract fell before stabilizing and then fluctuate rangebound. It opened at 94,720 yuan/mt, then continued to fall to 93,880 yuan/mt after the open. Prices subsequently stabilized somewhat and fluctuated between 93,770 yuan/mt and 94,270 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 94,010 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts for adjacent months was between Contango 50 yuan/mt and Backwardation 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged from a profit of 70 yuan/mt to a profit of 200 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.75, down 0.03 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.59, down 0.06 MoM. . At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted spot discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, among which JCC and Lufang were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt, while Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Zijin, Honglu, and Dajiang HS were quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, and ex-works cargoes such as Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, Tongguan, and Jintun pc were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity. Subsequently, some suppliers engaged in sell-offs, dragging overall market premiums lower, with Honglu and Tiefeng quoted at discounts of 120 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, suppliers cut prices further. Standard-quality copper such as Tiefeng, Zijin, Honglu, and Zhongjin was successively traded at quoted discounts of 130 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, while Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC traded at discounts of 70 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun pc were successively traded at quoted discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt.
Copper prices were somewhat higher than yesterday, but both purchasing and sales sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. From the market structure, under the current nearby-month spread structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and some engaged in sell-offs, driving overall spot discounts sharply lower, while downstream bargaining willingness was relatively evident. In the second trading period, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mostly focused on restocking on price dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between active selling by suppliers and cautious downstream procurement, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

2.China’s Copper Cathode Imports Declined in 2026, While the Share of EQ Copper Imports Continued to Rise
According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.
Looking back at 2025, EQ imported copper cathode in China, mostly referring to supply not registered with SHFE or LME, accounted for 67.54%, up significantly by 5.37 percentage points from 2024. By compiling monthly data from 2022 to 2025, found that this share showed a clear year-by-year upward trend.
Entering 2026, this momentum strengthened further. The import share of core supplier countries reached 68.1% in January, and by February, even as total imports pulled back to 153,000 mt due to the Chinese New Year holiday, the share still rose against the trend to 70.8%. This indicated that amid wildly fluctuating domestic-overseas price ratios and the frequent closure of the import window after December 2025, EQ supply remained the mainstay of China’s imported copper cathode market.
The most notable variable on the supply side in 2026 came from Africa. As the US continued to siphon off global copper cathode resources, the volume of African supply flowing to the US expanded further on top of 2025 levels. Earlier market talk that part of CMOC’s TFM mine output had been transferred to Swiss trading giant Mercuria for direct supply to the US market had already begun to show up in this year’s data.
Take the DRC as an example. Its supply to China reached as high as 96,000 mt in January 2026, but had pulled back to 65,000 mt by February. Although it still firmly ranked as China’s largest supplier, it has become highly likely that the share of DRC copper cathode flowing into China will be diluted amid the global scramble for resources. Although market rumors suggested that some such orders may have faced “default,” current import data showed that the volume of African supply coming to China was indeed limited, causing the price spread between EQ copper cathode and registered copper to continue narrowing. Observations indicated that supply from Russia and Kazakhstan remained relatively stable, with volumes broadly close to the 2025 monthly average import levels (China’s average monthly imports from Russia and Kazakhstan in 2025 were 18,300 mt and 9,400 mt, respectively). The volume under long-term contracts for such supply is expected to show no significant decrease in 2026 compared with 2025. Looking ahead to March, although the import window opened in February, supply arriving in China is expected to be difficult to increase substantially in the future due to factors such as African logistics and transportation. Moreover, if sulfur remains tight and affects wet-process production in Africa, supply coming to China is expected to remain tight in the future.

3.Freeport CEO Said Copper Demand Will Remain Resilient, with Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Surging Overnight
Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply and hit a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting short covering overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher and touched a high of 95,900 yuan/mt. Copper prices then maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, before dipping to 94,530 yuan/mt near the close and finally closing at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting short covering throughout the day.
[Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 23 (Monday), Freeport-McMoRan CEO Kathleen Quirk said that despite market turmoil caused by the Middle East conflict, copper demand for electrification, data centers, and other high-tech sectors is expected to remain resilient. As one of the most conductive metals, copper is widely used in motors, computers, batteries, and wires worldwide. Because its demand is regarded as a barometer of global economic health, it is known as "Dr. Copper." The artificial intelligence industry in particular has been consuming large amounts of copper for computer servers and related facilities. However, copper prices have fallen sharply since the US and Israel launched military action against Iran in late February. Quirk said that although the copper market has been roiled by the conflict, she expects global copper demand to grow. "The market is pricing in uncertainty over global economic growth, and 'Dr. Copper' (copper prices) influences people's perception of global risks," Quirk said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston. "But the drivers of copper demand growth are inherently more long term." As the world's largest listed copper company, Freeport produced 1.3 billion lb (589,670 mt) of copper in the US last year, all of which was sold in the domestic market, while its global production reached 3.38 billion lb (1,533,142 mt).
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 23, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap and then rebounded, followed by a rangebound pattern. It fell at the open to a low of 91,890 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 92,800 yuan/mt, after which prices fluctuated between 92,600 yuan/mt and 93,100 yuan/mt, then touched a high of 93,130 yuan/mt before pulling back, with the closing price at 92,620 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts stood between contango of 30 yuan/mt and backwardation of 20 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month was between a profit of 240 yuan/mt and a profit of 320 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue in a tug-of-war pattern. Intraday, copper prices fell somewhat, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the concentrated replenishment last week, actual new procurement was relatively limited. From the inventory perspective, according , combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. Intraday, supplier quotations were steady first and then lower, and suppliers actively shipped on the rebound in premiums, while selling pressure weighed on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 23, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous trading day; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 70 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 92,985 yuan/mt, down 2,960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,865 yuan/mt, down 2,965 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as futures shifted into a backwardation structure, suppliers actively shipped, spot premiums turned into discounts, and overall trading was average.
(3) Imported copper: On March 23, the average warrant price rose $4/mt from the previous trading day to $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 23, the futures closing price was 92,620 yuan/mt, down 3,230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average spot premiums stood at -50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 23, copper scrap prices fell 3,300 yuan/mt MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap fell to 2.21, the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.27, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 14 yuan/mt, down 431 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 480 yuan/mt. According to the survey, due to the sharp pullback in copper prices, most holders of copper scrap stopped quoting, while buyers found it difficult to close deals even when willing to purchase at high prices.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said that after negotiations on easing hostilities in the Middle East, he would delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and suggested that both sides could jointly control the Strait of Hormuz. These remarks eased market concerns over geopolitical risks, and the weaker US dollar directly boosted copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes will continue to arrive, and overall market supply remains ample; demand side, supported by the pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness continued to rebound. Inventory side, as of Monday, March 23, copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 14.54% WoW from the previous Monday, with significant destocking across all regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.

4.Social Inventory Plunged, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Held Steady Amid Bargaining
March 23:
In early trading, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap and then rebounded, before fluctuating rangebound. It opened down and fell to a low of 91,890 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 92,800 yuan/mt. Prices then fluctuated between 92,600 yuan/mt and 93,100 yuan/mt, before touching a high of 93,130 yuan/mt and pulling back, with the closing price at 92,620 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts was between Contango 30 yuan/mt and Backwardation 20 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between a profit of 240 yuan/mt and a profit of 320 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.78, down 0.04 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.65, down 0.15 MoM. . At the start of early trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, with JCC and Lufang quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; Jinchuan isa, Tiefeng, Zijin, Honglu, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, and Jintun PC were quoted ex-works at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was quoted at premiums of 10 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers slightly lowered prices. Standard-quality copper such as Tiefeng, Honglu, and Dajiang HS was quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, while Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and OLYDA were successively traded at discounts of 90 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; high-quality copper Guixi was successively traded at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to parity.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a bargaining pattern. Intraday, copper prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the concentrated bulk replenishment last week, actual incremental procurement remained relatively limited. Inventory side, according , total social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. Intraday, suppliers' quotations were steady at first and then declined, and they actively sold as premiums rebounded, with selling behavior weighing on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already used cargoes with invoices dated next month to quote against the SHFE copper 2604 contract during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

5.The Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Down 1%, Under Dual Pressure From Easing Expectations for an Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Tensions
Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 81,380 yuan/mt and immediately touched a low below 81,110 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center kept rising, and near the close it touched a high above 85,140 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 83,810 yuan/mt, down 1. Open interest stood at 5,292 lots, down 273 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 8,470 lots, up 1,184 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in bets on interest rate hikes. In the Middle East, both Israel and the US denied attacking Iran’s gas field and pledged to suspend strikes, while the US even indicated it might lift maritime oil sanctions on Iran to push down oil prices. However, Iran stressed that its retaliation was not over and planned to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated oil prices intensified market concerns over inflation and a weakening economy, leaving copper prices under pressure. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, with overall supply ample. Demand side, as copper prices stayed at low levels, downstream buyers maintained purchase willingness.
The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 94,780 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 83,810 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 94,705 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 75 yuan/mt, and the price spread remained in contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.