1.SHFE and LME bulls increased positions, inventory drawdown exceeded expectations to support copper prices consolidate at highs
Tuesday, Aug 25, 2026 Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,231/mt, edged down to $14,220/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to a high of $14,282.5/mt, and finally settled at $14,245/mt, up 0.42%, with trading volume at 16,000 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots, up 2,569 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bull accumulation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,220 yuan/mt, drifted higher to a high of 108,540 yuan/mt in early trading, then pulled back to a low of 108,120 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 108,150 yuan/mt, up 0.22%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 200,000 lots, up 8,439 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bull accumulation. [Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) According to BNAmericas, the total value of mining investment projects in Peru is currently around $64 billion, and the government hopes that 60% of these investments can be realized soon. Peru's Minister of Energy and Mines, Guillermo Shinno, said in a TV interview, "We are going through the projects one by one... Over the next five years, we expect mining investment to reach $40 billion, both for brownfield and greenfield projects." Referring to these projects, the minister mentioned expansion projects such as Antamina, Cerro Verde, and Constancia, as well as La Granja, Los Calatos, Michiquillay, and El Galeno, with a total investment of $13 billion. Shinno acknowledged that permits, social conflicts, and illegal mining are major obstacles to mining projects. To address this, the Ministry of Energy and Mines will reform the permit system in the coming months to accelerate the approval process. According to official data, mining investment in H1 2026 reached $3.304 billion, just over half of the $6.3 billion total for 2025. This indicates a rebound in market confidence and expectations that the government will take measures to remove obstacles for mining investment in Peru. In 2025, Peru remained the world's third-largest copper producer after Chile and the DRC, with production of 2.77 million mt. At the same time, gold production stood at 109 mt. Spot: (1) Shanghai: On Aug 24, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 150-270 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a consolidation pattern after an initial decline. After the market opened, prices quickly edged down, hitting a low of around 107,600 yuan/mt during the session; then prices rebounded repeatedly, once rising to around 107,860 yuan/mt, but encountered significant resistance at the upper level. Approaching midday, prices pulled back again before rebounding slightly, finally closing at 107,760 yuan/mt. The morning session's trading center was overall below the average price line. The intermonth Back spread ranged between 170 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract month was between a loss of 1,080 yuan/mt and a loss of 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, recorded Shanghai's social inventory at 70,800 mt, down 12,300 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu's social inventory at 16,300 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday, with the combined inventory in east China decreasing by 16,400 mt, and the destocking magnitude exceeded market expectations. In terms of supply, due to the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, port arrivals from outside China have decreased. Coupled with some shipment delays, the supplement of imported copper to the spot market has been relatively limited. On the demand side, after a slight correction in copper prices last week, downstream buyers released some dip-buying demand. Meanwhile, the intermonth Back spread once widened, increasing suppliers' willingness to sell, and market cargo flows accelerated, jointly pushing inventory down significantly. Although buying sentiment picked up during the day, transactions for standard-quality copper only occurred after continuous downward adjustments in offers, reflecting downstream's limited acceptance of higher premiums. Overall, with east China inventory declining substantially and limited import arrivals supporting premiums, but downstream still mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement on dips and suppliers remaining willing to sell, spot SHFE copper premiums against the 2609 contract are expected to remain positive today, with the center gradually stopping falling and stabilizing, and the room for continued sharp declines is relatively limited. (2) Guangdong: On August 24, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper reported a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,840 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,735 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt. Today, Guangdong's copper cathode buying sentiment stood at 2.82, up 0.14 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment stood at 2.99, down 0.03 (historical data available on the database). Overall, with premiums moving lower, downstream replenishment increased, and today's trading was better than last Friday. (3) Imported copper: On August 24, the average warrant premium fell $3/mt from the previous day to $90/mt (price range $85-95/mt); the average B/L premium fell $2/mt to $87/mt (price range $83-91/mt); the average premium for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $5/mt to $40/mt (price range $30-50/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to mid-September. (4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on August 24, the futures closing price was 107,760 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 210 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 400 yuan/mt WoW. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index fell to 2.73, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.84. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,846 yuan/mt, down 327 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,150 yuan/mt. According to the survey, copper prices were stable, and both secondary copper rod enterprises and secondary copper raw material traders showed weak willingness to trade. The consumption season is about to arrive, but secondary copper rod enterprises said that end-use demand has failed to meet expectations and has been suppressed by high copper prices. Prices: On the macro front, the US expanded the scope of secondary sanctions on Iran and imposed additional tariffs on Canadian goods, pushing the US dollar index back above the 99 mark, and copper prices came under pressure and pulled back. Subsequently, the US dollar's gains narrowed, and copper prices rebounded. On the fundamentals side, supply from both domestic and imported copper cathode arrivals fell in the short term, coupled with delays in some imported shipments, reducing available cargoes and tightening spot supply. On the demand side, as copper prices rebounded again, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was dampened, and enterprises remained focused on just-in-time procurement. As of Monday, August 24, copper inventories in major regions across the country decreased by 19,700 mt WoW from last Monday to 114,200 mt, down 8,800 mt compared to the same period last year's 123,000 mt, with destocking in all regions. In summary, copper prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs today. 

2.East China inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, strengthening downside support for Shanghai spot copper spot premiums.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded a social inventory of 70,800 mt in the Shanghai region, down 12,300 mt compared to last Thursday; a social inventory of 16,300 mt in the Jiangsu region, down 4,100 mt compared to last Thursday. The combined inventory in the two regions in east China decreased by 16,400 mt, with the destocking magnitude exceeding market expectations. Supply side, affected by the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, port arrivals from outside China have decreased, and coupled with some shipment delays, the supplement of imported copper to the spot market has been relatively limited. Demand side, after last week's slight correction in copper prices, there was a release of dip-buying demand from downstream; at the same time, the backwardation price spread between futures contracts once widened, increasing suppliers' willingness to sell, and accelerating the flow of cargo in the market, collectively driving a significant decline in inventory. Although intraday buying sentiment rebounded, transactions for standard-quality copper only occurred after successive downward adjustments in offers, reflecting that downstream acceptance of higher premiums remains limited. On balance, against the backdrop of significant destocking in east China and low import arrivals providing support for premiums, while downstream still mainly adopts just-in-time procurement on dips and suppliers retain a willingness to sell, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to gradually stop falling and stabilize, and the room for further significant declines is relatively limited.

3.LME copper bulls increased positions, rising more than 1%, while SHFE copper bears reduced positions and slightly closed higher
2026.8.24 Monday
Futures: August 24 news, last Friday evening LME copper opened at $14,186/mt, initially drifted higher to a high of $14,260/mt, then retreated from highs to a low of $14,171/mt, finally closed at $14,185/mt, up 1.02%, with trading volume of 19,000 lots and open interest of 263,000 lots, up 1,603 lots from the previous trading day, showing long-position additions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,070 yuan/mt, initially rose to 108,280 yuan/mt, then pulled back to a low of 107,840 yuan/mt, finally closed at 107,900 yuan/mt, up 0.14%, with trading volume of 21,000 lots and open interest of 147,000 lots, down 2,861 lots from the previous trading day, showing short-position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that the global refined copper market saw a supply deficit of 60,000 mt in June, compared with a supply surplus of 15,000 mt in May. ICSG said that in the first six months of this year, the cumulative copper market supply surplus was 131,000 mt, compared with a surplus of 114,000 mt in the same period last year. Global refined copper production in June was 2.37 million mt, and consumption was 2.43 million mt.
(1) Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On August 21, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 190-360 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 275 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early morning, the SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a pattern of shooting up and then consolidating at highs. After the opening, prices quickly rose from around 107,380 yuan/mt, with some fluctuations but the center continuously rising; near 10:30, the pace accelerated, with the intraday high reaching around 107,780 yuan/mt. Thereafter, prices retreated from highs and consolidated in the 107,600-107,700 yuan/mt range, closing the morning at 107,570 yuan/mt. The price spread between consecutive futures contracts (Back) ranged between 230-290 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month was between a loss of 700 yuan/mt and a loss of 590 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, previously arrived Russian copper has been largely absorbed by the market, and the concentrated impact of earlier imported cargoes on the spot market has eased. However, according to SMM, some non-registered copper, delayed due to port factors, is expected to arrive early next week, potentially increasing available market supply and putting some pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers continue to focus on buying the dip and restocking for essential needs. Although intraday buying sentiment continued to recover, standard-quality copper only saw transactions after the morning premium of around 300 yuan/mt was continuously lowered to 180-210 yuan/mt, reflecting that downstream buyers' acceptance of current copper prices and relatively high premiums remains limited. Meanwhile, high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper cargoes are relatively scarce, and the price spread between brands is expected to persist. In summary, under the combined effects of non-registered copper arrivals supplementing supply, downstream buyers pushing for lower prices, and high copper prices curbing rush-to-buy demand, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week, but the overall center may continue to be in the doldrums; if copper prices fall significantly, the release of dip-buying demand could provide some support for the lower end of premiums.
(2) Guangdong: On August 21, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were reported at premiums of 130-200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 165 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at premiums of 50-70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,740 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,495 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream demand recovered, and with low inventories, suppliers offered high premiums. Trading was moderate as stockpiling demand increased.
(3) Imported copper: On August 21, the average warrant price was up $6/mt from the previous trading day to $93/mt (price range $88-98/mt); the average B/L price was up $7/mt from the previous trading day to $89/mt (price range $83-95/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was down $5/mt from the previous trading day to $45/mt (price range $35-55/mt), with prices referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 21, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 107,570 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 275 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM today. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.77, while the procurement sentiment index was flat at 1.88. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,173 yuan/mt, down 214 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,220 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices rebounded, and suppliers of copper scrap sold at higher prices. The procurement sentiment of copper rod enterprises remained unchanged from yesterday, while market availability of copper scrap increased from yesterday.
Price: On the macro front, Trump stated that solving the US high debt problem would mainly rely on economic growth and said he did not instruct Bessent to intervene in the bond market. On the geopolitical front, uncertainties remain in the US-Iran situation. Trump said the shift to an "economic war" against Iran does not mean military options are limited, while Iran warned of a strong response to external threats. However, Iran's president called for an end to the war with the US, and Iran allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling some easing of tensions. Overall, expectations of easing US-Iran tensions coexist with military risks, providing some support to copper prices. On the fundamentals front, on the supply side, domestic and imported cargoes continued to arrive, increasing overall available cargo and further easing the tight spot supply situation. On the demand side, copper prices stayed high, limiting downstream buying interest, with purchases mainly for essential restocking. In summary, copper prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs today.

4.Copper prices pulled back, releasing downstream rigid demand, and the operating rate of copper cathode rod rose WoW
The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China this week (August 14-20) was 61.2%, up 1.89 percentage points WoW, up 2.19 percentage points from expectations, and down 11.3 percentage points YoY. Copper prices fluctuated sharply this week. During the rapid price pullback, downstream demand previously suppressed by high prices was released collectively, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises rebounded significantly, directly driving the operating rate upward. End-use industries such as cables and enamelled wire were also stimulated by the copper price pullback. Rigid demand clients engaged in concentrated procurement, and overall demand slightly recovered, providing strong support for copper rod enterprises' operations. On the inventory side, during the copper price pullback, enterprises took the opportunity to restock raw materials for rigid demand. Raw material inventory increased 1.36 percentage points WoW; at the same time, downstream actively priced and picked up goods during the copper price pullback, leading to destocking of finished product inventories, which decreased 1.91 percentage points WoW. Looking ahead to next week (August 21-27), after copper prices stabilize, bearish sentiment among downstream players reemerges, and the growth rate of new orders is expected to slow down. Additionally, some enterprises that originally planned maintenance this week have delayed their maintenance plans to next week due to the rebound in orders. estimates that the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises next week will decrease 1.24 percentage points WoW to 59.96%.

5.UK Recycling Industry Calls for Open Copper Scrap Trade Amid Limited Domestic Processing Capacity
The UK recycling industry is calling for continued access to global scrap markets as governments increasingly seek to retain strategic secondary materials domestically. Enicor Executive Chairman Tom Bird said the UK currently lacks sufficient domestic capacity to process all of its recovered metals, with brass and certain copper scrap grades particularly reliant on export markets. Restricting trade before sufficient domestic processing capacity is established could depress scrap values and weaken recycling incentives.