1.Available supply declines; Shanghai spot copper premiums dip before rebounding during the day
September 17:
Today, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at a premium of 550-710 yuan/mt, with an average of 630 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract opened lower with a gap and then continued to rise, with a slight correction during the session. The opening price was 107,640 yuan/mt. After the open, prices quickly moved lower, dipping to 107,480 yuan/mt, then rapidly rebounded to around 108,100 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Prices then rose quickly again, reaching an intraday high of 108,450 yuan/mt, and closed at 108,370 yuan/mt. The month-to-month backwardation spread was between 350 yuan/mt and 410 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract was between a loss of 480 yuan/mt and a loss of 410 yuan/mt.
During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.90, up 0.12 MoM, and purchase sentiment was 2.92, up 0.27 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 550-650 yuan/mt, with Tiefeng and Yuguang quoting at a premium of 550 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers sharply lowered their quotes, and Tiefeng, Yuguang, and others were quickly traded at premiums of 500-520 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was mostly quoted at premiums of 300-400 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, such as Jintun plates, was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, and Jinchuan plates at a premium of 750 yuan/mt. In the second session, mainstream standard-quality copper supply in Shanghai was relatively tight. After low-priced cargoes were quickly traded, available supply became scarce, and suppliers raised their quotes accordingly. Standard-quality copper was mostly quoted at premiums of 630-650 yuan/mt, with transactions mainly at premiums of 570-640 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 58,600 mt, down 2,500 mt WoW from Monday, while social inventory in Jiangsu was recorded at 20,800 mt, up 2,300 mt WoW from Monday. Overall social inventory saw a slight destocking. From a supply-demand fundamental perspective, a large volume of imported copper is expected to arrive later, which may put phased pressure on spot premiums. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of the current high premiums, but due to tight supply of mainstream circulating cargoes in Shanghai, spot premiums for Shanghai copper fell first and then rose during the day. In addition, according , some downstream processing enterprises have begun stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with purchase willingness edging up slightly. Spot premiums for Shanghai copper are expected to remain at current high levels tomorrow, with a possibility of edging up slightly.

2.China's physical demand recovers, Yangshan copper premiums rise to near four-year high
Friday, September 18, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,378/mt, drifted higher after the open, touched a high of $14,513/mt, and finally closed at $14,464/mt, up 1.50%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest stood at 263,000 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 109,200 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 109,850 yuan/mt during the session, then pulled back somewhat before finally closing at 109,650 yuan/mt, up 1.06%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest stood at 159,000 lots, a decrease of 776 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish liquidation.
[ Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Thursday, September 17, London copper futures rose, supported by an improved demand outlook and a softer US dollar. At 17:00 London time on September 17 (00:00 Beijing time on September 18), three-month LME copper rose $259, or 1.82%, to close at $14,491.5/mt. Since hitting a record high of $14,875/mt on September 10, copper prices have fallen 2.5%. The US Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and signaled further hikes in the coming months. New Fed Chairman Warsh backed the unanimous decision, which effectively acknowledged that the Trump administration has so far failed to contain inflation, and policymakers worry it could worsen further. The latest quarterly economic projections showed that 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike before the end of this year, while only two expect rates to remain unchanged. All but one policymaker saw upside risks to inflation and no longer viewed those risks as stemming primarily from one-off supply shocks. The US dollar rose after the Fed raised rates and reaffirmed its resolve to curb inflation, but pulled back later in the session as oil prices extended their decline. Marex senior base metals strategist Alastair Munro said Chinese buyers have returned, though volumes are not "massive." China is the world's largest copper consumer, and its strong physical demand is reflected in Yangshan copper premiums. The premium, a gauge of China's demand for imported copper, rose 2.5% on Thursday to $121/mt, the highest level in nearly four years. This strong demand is also reflected in domestic physical market premiums. Spot premiums over SHFE transaction prices rose to 645 yuan/mt on Wednesday, the highest since December 2023. Copper flowing to the US is also one reason LME warehouse inventories have declined since February last year, when US President Trump first talked about imposing tariffs on imported copper.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 17, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at premiums of 550-710 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 630 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract opened lower with a gap and then continued to rise, with a slight correction during the session. The opening price was 107,640 yuan/mt. After the open, prices quickly declined to 107,480 yuan/mt, then rapidly rallied to around 108,100 yuan/mt before a slight correction, followed by another rapid rise. The intraday high reached 108,450 yuan/mt, and the closing price was 108,370 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between adjacent months was 350-410 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 front-month contract ranged from a loss of 480 yuan/mt to a loss of 410 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.90, up 0.12 MoM, and the purchase sentiment was 2.92, up 0.27 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 58,600 mt, down 2,500 mt WoW from Monday, while social inventory in Jiangsu was recorded at 20,800 mt, up 2,300 mt WoW from Monday. Overall social inventory saw a slight destocking. Supply-demand fundamentals: A large volume of imported copper is expected to arrive subsequently, which may put phased pressure on spot premiums. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of the current high premiums, but due to tight availability of mainstream circulating cargoes in Shanghai, spot premiums for Shanghai copper cathode fell first and then rose during the day. In addition, according , some downstream processing enterprises have begun stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with purchase willingness edging up. Spot premiums for Shanghai copper cathode are expected to remain at current high levels today, with potential for a slight uptick.
(2) Guangdong: On September 17, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 550 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 490 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,635 yuan/mt, up 820 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,500 yuan/mt, up 805 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The purchase sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.56, up 0.05 from the previous trading day, and the sales sentiment was 2.77, up 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, tight availability of circulating cargoes drove spot premiums higher, and market trading was slightly better than yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On September 17, the average warrant price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $121/mt (price range: $112-130/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $116/mt (price range: $112-120/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $65/mt (price range: $60-70/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to mid-October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 17, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 108,370 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 630 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt WoW. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index rose to 2.69, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.92. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,621 yuan/mt, up WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,000 yuan/mt. According to the survey, with the US Fed rate hike landed, market sentiment has been fully digested. Copper prices bottomed out. Secondary copper rod enterprises are currently urgently seeking tax-inclusive secondary copper raw material procurement, but with domestic secondary copper social inventory low and tax-inclusive supply already limited, secondary copper rod enterprises' procurement volume is extremely limited, resulting in low circulation in the secondary copper rod market.
Prices: On the macro front, expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East emerged, with Trump confirming he will meet with Gulf state leaders and the Iranian delegation granted permission to attend. Saudi Arabia reportedly found alternative routes for oil exports, and oil prices fell for two consecutive days. Meanwhile, China-US economic and trade teams are maintaining close communication on issues such as tariff reductions, boosting market risk appetite and driving copper prices higher. On the fundamentals side, although some imported copper is expected to arrive at ports in a concentrated manner later, actual supply growth remains limited in the short term, keeping the spot market tight. On the demand side, high copper prices have dampened downstream procurement, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. As of Thursday, September 17, copper inventories in major Chinese regions rose 1,600 mt WoW to 89,100 mt, down 44,600 mt from 133,700 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue to edge up today.

3.[Contract rollover and tight supply drive Shanghai spot copper premiums to a new YTD high after initial dip]
This week, the SHFE copper 2609 contract was delivered. Affected by the high backwardation spread, SHFE spot copper premiums quickly shifted from slight parity at the start of the week to a relatively high level, hitting a new high for the year. At the beginning of the week, after a slight correction in copper prices last week, downstream consumption surged. After active restocking, consumption weakened, and SHFE spot copper premiums basically remained at a slight discount. Subsequently, after the contract rollover, affected by the high backwardation, SHFE spot copper premiums hit a new high for the year. On September 17, recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 58,600 mt, down 2,500 mt WoW from Monday; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 20,800 mt, up 2,300 mt WoW from Monday, with overall social inventory showing a slight decline.
Looking ahead to next week, the spot market still needs to focus on the arrival pace of imported cargoes and the strength of pre-holiday stockpiling for the two festivals. At the start of this week, the import window briefly opened, stimulating imported cargoes to be priced and flow in. However, it will still take time from vessel arrival, customs clearance, and warehousing to entering the spot market, making it difficult to form a substantial impact in the short term. But if imported cargoes and smelter deliveries are gradually realized, spot supply pressure may emerge in stages. Meanwhile, mainstream standard-quality copper and high-quality copper supply in Shanghai remains relatively tight, with suppliers showing strong willingness to hold prices firm, which still supports spot premiums. On the demand side, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, and downstream fear of high prices is gradually emerging. Purchases are mostly based on rigid demand, with weak capacity to absorb high premiums. However, some downstream processing enterprises started stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day during the week, with purchase willingness rebounding slightly, though its sustainability still needs to be observed. Overall, SHFE spot copper premiums are expected to stay high next week. If imported copper is concentrated into warehouses, there may be a staged pullback. Focus should be on the actual arrival pace of imported copper and changes in downstream stocking sentiment.

4.Price spread between futures contracts widens, spot premiums surge after delivery, expected to remain high next week
September 17, 2026 news:
Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a bottoming-out trend. At the beginning of the week, due to a large price spread between futures contracts and the approaching delivery date, spot premiums turned into discounts. After delivery was completed, spot premiums rose sharply, and with the continuous tightening of available supply in the market, premiums kept climbing. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 550 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 490 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 0 yuan/mt, a relatively small spread that did not trigger inter-regional transfers. According to
statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 7,200 mt, down 800 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 325 mt, down 451 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 11,200 mt/week, down 2,700 mt/week WoW, far below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Production cuts at smelters around Guangdong and low arrivals of imported copper were the main reasons. Warehouse withdrawals were 13,300 mt/week, down 372 mt WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Consumption was subdued at the start of the week due to contract rollover, and downstream consumption gradually improved after the rollover.
Looking ahead to next week, it is reported that arrivals of both domestic copper cathode and imported copper will remain low next week, and total supply is expected to stay at low levels, while downstream consumption is expected to be better than this week. Therefore, Guangdong inventory will continue to decline next week, and spot premiums will move higher.

5.Domestic tax-inclusive supply scarce, secondary copper rod enterprise production limited
September 17
  At 11:30 today, futures closing price was 108,370 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums averaged 630 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The secondary copper sales sentiment index rose to 2.69, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.92. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,621 yuan/mt, up MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,000 yuan/mt. According to the survey, with the US Fed rate hike implemented, market sentiment has fully digested the news. Copper prices bottomed out and rebounded. Secondary copper rod enterprises are currently urgently seeking tax-inclusive secondary copper procurement, but with domestic secondary copper social inventory low and tax-inclusive supply already limited, procurement volumes at secondary copper rod enterprises are extremely limited, resulting in low circulation in the secondary copper rod market.