1.Inventory drawdown combined with copper price pullback, Shanghai spot copper premiums strengthened at week's end
This week, SHFE copper spot premiums held steady before rising. At the start of the week, some low-priced cargoes entered the market, slightly weighing on premiums. Mid-week, some processing enterprises released orders and procurement demand, but performance diverged among enterprises. High premiums and the backwardation between the current and next-month contracts limited willingness to chase prices, and premiums overall continued to consolidate at highs. On Friday, a decline in SHFE copper prices activated some downstream dip-buying, and combined with reduced low-priced cargoes and suppliers holding prices firm, spot premiums rose. On the inventory side, social inventory in Shanghai stood at 51,100 mt as of October 22, down 8,200 mt from Monday this week; Jiangsu recorded 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt from Monday, with combined destocking of 10,200 mt across the two regions.
Looking ahead to next week, SHFE copper spot premiums are expected to hold up well. Supply side, recent warrant outflows from delivery are limited, domestic cargo replenishment is modest, and available spot copper in Shanghai remains tight; affected by typhoon weather expectations, the arrival and unloading pace of some imported copper may be delayed, and short-term cargo replenishment still needs monitoring. Demand side, after copper prices pulled back, downstream rigid demand and dip-buying restocking have been released to some extent. If prices remain within an acceptable range for downstream buyers, procurement demand is expected to continue supporting premiums. After the import window opened in stages, subsequent arrivals may also ease tight supply. Overall, SHFE spot copper against the 2611 contract is expected to maintain high premiums next week, with potential for further gains in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual imported copper arrivals, warrant outflows, and the sustainability of downstream dip-buying.

2.Copper price decline activates some buying interest, spot premiums rise for consecutive days
October 23:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2611 contract were quoted at premiums of 780-920 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 850 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2611 contract opened lower before dipping then rising. After the open, prices briefly shot up to around 108,150 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to around 107,800 yuan/mt. Copper prices then consolidated at lows, dipping to around 107,600 yuan/mt intraday, before rebounding strongly and gradually climbing back above 108,000 yuan/mt. Near midday, prices rose to an intraday high of around 108,450 yuan/mt, with the morning session closing at 108,380 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front and next month contracts stood at 780-920 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2611 contract ranged from a loss of 100 yuan/mt to a profit of 120 yuan/mt.
Intraday, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 3.17, up 0.04 MoM, while the purchase sentiment was 3.15, up 0.07 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 700-780 yuan/mt, and high-quality Jinchuan plate at a premium of 900 yuan/mt. Suppliers then slightly raised their quotes, offering JCC and Lufang at a premium of 850 yuan/mt, and Zhongjin and Tongguan at premiums of 810-850 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper BMKM00K was quoted at a premium of 650 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month, while non-registered copper was quoted at premiums of 550-580 yuan/mt. In the second trading period, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, with standard-quality copper largely trading at premiums of 800-850 yuan/mt. High-quality Guixi copper traded at a premium of 950 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was in tight supply, with few quotes available.
Looking ahead to next week, available spot supply in the Shanghai region remains persistently tight, providing strong support for spot premiums. On the import side, the import window has opened intermittently recently, and some imported copper is expected to arrive gradually. However, due to typhoon weather, there are risks of delays in vessel arrivals and unloading, and short-term import supply replenishment is expected to remain relatively limited, making it difficult to significantly ease the tight spot supply situation. On the demand side, as copper prices have pulled back notably from their center, purchase willingness among some downstream processing enterprises has improved, with restocking demand from both rigid needs and bargain hunting being released, and market trading activity has picked up compared with the earlier period. With limited import replenishment, tight availability of spot cargoes, and marginal improvement in downstream consumption, spot premiums in the Shanghai region are expected to stay high next week, with potential for further gains.

3.LME copper inventories rise for consecutive days, coupled with rising oil prices, copper prices weaken under pressure
Copper Morning Briefing | Friday, October 23, 2026
Overnight, LME copper closed down 1.90%, driven by increased short positions; SHFE copper closed down 0.74%, driven by reduced long positions. LME copper inventories continued to rebound, marginally easing supply concerns; escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation worries. Copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within a narrow range today.
1. Overnight Futures
LME copper opened at $14,119.5/mt, hit a high of $14,167.5/mt and a low of $14,031/mt, and closed at $14,098/mt, down 1.90%. Trading volume was 35,000 lots, with open interest at 262,000 lots, up 129 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased short positions.
The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt, hit a high of 108,220 yuan/mt and a low of 107,660 yuan/mt, and closed at 108,030 yuan/mt, down 0.74%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, with open interest at 130,000 lots, down 6,982 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting reduced long positions.
2. News
LME Week 2026 kicked off in London on Monday, with industry leaders focusing on the macro outlook for base metals, demand driven by artificial intelligence and the energy transition, and supply chain resilience for critical minerals. From January to September 2026, LME average daily trading volume rose 16% YoY, reflecting strong market trading momentum.
Standard Chartered commodity analysts expect base metal trends to diverge in the coming months. Prices will be mainly influenced by market risk appetite, US Fed interest rate policy, US dollar movements, Chinese economic activity, geopolitical conditions, uncertainty over US copper tariffs, and supply changes. Uncertainty over individual metal tariff policies continues to trigger price fluctuations, sharp swings in premiums, and inventory misallocation; supply factors such as production disruptions, mining quotas, smelter power contracts, sulfur shortages, and wage negotiations also warrant attention.
3. Spot Market
1) Shanghai
Procurement sentiment stood at 3.08, down 0.04 MoM; sales sentiment stood at 3.13, down 0.02 MoM.
On October 22, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2611 contract were reported at a premium of 600–820 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 710 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day.
The SHFE copper 2611 contract closed the morning session at around 108,830 yuan/mt, with the backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts at 660–710 yuan/mt, and import losses for the front-month contract at approximately 350–440 yuan/mt.
Shanghai social inventory stood at 51,100 mt, down 8,200 mt MoM; Jiangsu social inventory stood at 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt MoM. Regional inventories continued to draw down, reflecting relatively limited arrivals in the market recently.
On the demand side, some downstream processing enterprises are still making just-in-time procurement, but high spot premiums combined with a wide backwardation structure between futures contracts have pushed up overall procurement costs, limiting the spot market's ability to absorb supply. Although some domestic cargoes have arrived recently, the overall growth is limited. Due to expectations of typhoon weather, some vessels have taken shelter measures, which may disrupt the pace of imported copper arrivals in the short term.
Low inventory and slow import replenishment continue to support spot premiums, but high premiums and the wide backwardation structure are limiting downstream purchasing interest. Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to continue to consolidate at highs, with limited further upside.
2) Guangdong
Procurement sentiment was 2.75, up 0.12 MoM; selling sentiment was 2.68, down 0.03 MoM.
High-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 750 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 500 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 440 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 109,750 yuan/mt, down 710 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 109,565 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The pullback in copper prices drove an increase in downstream purchases, pushing spot premiums higher, with overall market trading activity better than the previous trading day.
3) Imported copper
The average warrant price was $158/mt, up $10/mt from the previous trading day, with a quotation range of $146-170/mt.
The average B/L price was 143 yuan/mt, up 8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a quotation range of 136-150 yuan/mt.
The average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $67/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day, with a quotation range of $62-72/mt.
The above quotations are based on cargoes arriving from October to mid-to-late November.
4) Secondary copper
At 11:30 on October 22, the futures closing price was 108,830 yuan/mt, down 990 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 710 yuan/mt, flat MoM.
Copper scrap prices fell 200 yuan/mt MoM, with the selling sentiment index dropping to 2.50 and the procurement sentiment index rising to 2.13. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,896 yuan/mt, narrowing 760 yuan/mt MoM; the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 430 yuan/mt.
Affected by the escalation of the US-Iran situation, volatility in the commodity market has intensified. After copper prices pulled back, secondary copper rod enterprises actively bought the dip. However, many copper scrap traders believe the price decline is unlikely to be sustained, and their willingness to sell at lower prices in the short term remains low, intensifying the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the market.
IV. Inventories (as of Oct 22)
copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell 21,500 mt WoW from last Thursday to around 90,000 mt; total inventories were down about 90,000 mt from around 180,000 mt in the same period last year.
Ex-China, LME copper inventories accumulated for the fourth consecutive trading day, with inventories in US warehouses rising to their highest level in 12 years. Inventory trends in China and ex-China diverged.
V. Market Summary
Macro: LME copper inventories continued to accumulate, marginally easing supply concerns; escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation worries, weighing on copper prices.
Supply: Arrivals of both imported copper and domestic cargoes declined, and typhoon weather may further disrupt the pace of near-term imported copper arrivals at ports.
Demand: The pullback in copper prices drove a recovery in downstream consumption, with rigid procurement demand increasing, but high premiums and a steep backwardation structure continued to limit buying appetite.
Inventories: As of Oct 22, copper inventories in major Chinese regions continued to decline; LME copper inventories accumulated for a fourth straight day, with inventory trends in China and ex-China diverging.
Price outlook: Rising ex-China inventories, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns are weighing on copper prices, while low domestic inventories and reduced arrivals provide some support. Copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in a narrow range today, with spot premiums staying high.

4.Available supply remains persistently short; premiums for imported registered copper approach record highs
This week (October 19–October 22), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $134–157/mt, QP November, with an average price of $145/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $128–142/mt, QP November, with an average price of $135/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was $60–69/mt, QP November, with an average price of $64/mt. As of October 22, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the LME copper against SHFE copper November 2026 contract, excluding exchange rate effects, was 1.1384, with an import loss of approximately 410.53 yuan/mt, narrowing by about 267 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper nearby showed a backwardation structure, with the carry spread between the November date and December date contracts at $40.45/mt, widening WoW.
During the week, spot premiums for imported copper shot up again, with registered copper warrant premiums hitting a near-decade high and approaching record levels. The core driver behind the rise in spot premiums was the shortage of available spot supply: 1. LME Asian warehouses and domestic copper cathode social inventories were both at low levels; 2. Arbitrage opportunities existed between the international copper and LME copper markets; 3. Recent shipping schedules were relatively unstable; 4. Copper prices weakened while rigid demand remained moderate. With multiple factors converging, suppliers held back from selling, registered copper supply became extremely hard to source, and market psychological transaction price levels kept climbing.
According , as of Thursday this week (October 22), domestic bonded zone copper inventories decreased by 3,200 mt MoM from the previous period (October 15) to 31,200 mt. Among them, Shanghai bonded inventories decreased by 3,200 mt MoM to 25,000 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories remained flat MoM at 3,000 mt. This week, bonded zone inventories shifted from inventory buildup to destocking, mainly because previously concentrated arrivals at ports were imported into China, increasing the destocking volume in bonded zones.
Looking ahead, Shanghai and surrounding areas are again facing typhoon weather impacts, and some imported copper arrivals may continue to be delayed. Domestic raw material shortages and concentrated smelter maintenance have kept social inventories persistently low, making it difficult for market supply to see significant replenishment. It is expected that the tight supply logic will be hard to change in the short term, with imported copper premiums fluctuating at highs. Meanwhile, according to market sources, the DRC government is cracking down on illegal mining, and whether this will affect future arrivals at domestic ports remains to be seen.

5.Inventory destocking continues, coupled with expectations of delays in imported arrivals, spot premiums remain supported
[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 51,100 mt, down 8,200 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. Regional inventory continued to destock, reflecting relatively limited arrivals in the market recently. On the demand side, some downstream processing enterprises still made just-in-time procurement during the day, but with spot premiums and the backwardation in the next-month spread both staying at relatively high levels, downstream comprehensive procurement costs remained elevated, which continued to constrain their ability to absorb spot cargoes. On the supply side, although some domestic cargoes have arrived gradually recently, the overall growth was relatively limited. In addition, affected by typhoon expectations, some ports reported that vessels have already taken shelter measures, and the pace of imported copper arrivals at ports may be disrupted in the short term, with some cargoes likely to be delayed. Overall, low inventory and slow import replenishment are expected to continue supporting spot premiums, but the high premium and high backwardation structure will continue to limit downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Shanghai spot premiums are expected to continue to consolidate at highs tomorrow, with further upside likely to be relatively limited.
October 22:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2611 contract were quoted at premiums of 600-820 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 710 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2611 contract opened lower and drifted lower. After the open, prices quickly pulled back to around 109,300 yuan/mt, then briefly rebounded to around 109,370 yuan/mt. Copper prices subsequently came under pressure again, with the futures center continuing to shift lower. Despite minor rebounds during the session, upward momentum was limited, and prices broke below 109,000 yuan/mt and 108,900 yuan/mt successively, dipping to around 108,830 yuan/mt near midday, with the morning session closing at around 108,830 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between next-month and front-month contracts stood at 660-710 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2611 contract was at a loss of 440-350 yuan/mt.
During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.13, down 0.02 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 3.08, down 0.04 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 650-750 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper at premiums of 580-600 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered their quotes, with standard-quality copper brands such as Jinguan, Jintun PC, Zhongtiaoshan, and Olyda quoted at premiums of 620-680 yuan/mt, and Honglu quoted at a premium of 550 yuan/mt. High-quality copper supply was scarce, with only some Guixi warrants circulating, quoted at a premium of 800 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers further lowered quotes, with some cargoes in Changzhou at premiums of 580-600 yuan/mt, while quotes in Shanghai were largely at a premium of 600 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper was quoted at premiums of 500-550 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 51,100 mt, down 8,200 mt WoW, and social inventory in Jiangsu at 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. Regional inventories continued to destock, reflecting relatively limited arrivals in the market recently. Demand side, some downstream processing enterprises still made just-in-time procurement during the day, but with spot premiums and the backwardation spread between futures contracts both staying at relatively high levels, downstream comprehensive procurement costs remained elevated, limiting their ability to absorb spot cargoes. Supply side, although some domestic cargoes have arrived gradually recently, overall growth has been relatively limited. In addition, due to typhoon weather expectations, some ports reported that vessels have already taken shelter measures, and the pace of imported copper arrivals may be disrupted in the short term, with some cargoes potentially facing delayed arrivals. Overall, low inventory and slow import replenishment are expected to continue supporting spot premiums, but the high premium and high backwardation structure will continue to curb downstream procurement enthusiasm. Spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to continue to consolidate at highs tomorrow, with further upside likely to be relatively limited.